We have three grandkids of spring break with us this week. I will attempt to write everyday though the notes may be abbreviated.
Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P broke its short term downtrend and reset to a trading range and is now sitting right on its 100 day moving average. To confirm a reset of momentum, the Dow needs to break its short term downtrend and both of the indices reset their 100 day moving averages from resistance to support.
The long Treasury is developing a very short term downtrend, a risk-on move in this Market (sell bonds, buy stocks). However, it is well within a short term uptrend, well above its ascending 100 day moving average and has held the 128.38 Fibonacci retracement level twice.
Gold looks like it is getting overextended to the upside; but it could back off 4% and still not break its very short term uptrend.
The VIX is reflecting/supporting the current surge in stock prices. It is building a very short term downtrend and has reset the 100 day moving average from support to resistance.
Rothschild fears ‘daunting litany of problems’ (medium):
***overnight, China lowered its 2016 economic growth estimate and was very cryptic about implementing any fiscal stimulus; January German factory orders fell; the IMF and EU are at loggerheads for a third Greek bailout over the strength of recent Greek reform measures.
Investing for Survival
On investment charlatans.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
An inside look at the oil and gas industry (medium):
Why are oil imports rising (short):
More on what happens if Brexit occurs (medium):
Former UK ambassador to Syria on current policy (medium and a must read):