Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Tuesday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Tuesday Morning Chartology

            The S&P had another rough week.  It took out the early January low and mounted an unsuccessful challenge to the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  Given that failed effort and the S&P’s extremely oversold condition, a big bounce is likely.  However, big it may be, I think a re-test of 1867 is probable. 

            The long Treasury had a great week on big volume.  It is now challenging the upper boundary of its very short term trading range; if it closes there at the close today, the trend will reset to an uptrend.

            With all the turmoil in the Markets, it is surprising to me that GLD still can’t get out of its own way.  Its inability to advance like the relative sluggish performance of the VIX indicates a lack of anxiety.

            The rise in the VIX reflects the lousy pin action.  Notice that despite the Averages testing their August 2015 lows, the VIX did not test its respective high---which suggests to me that investors are more complacent than they were in August.  That is not a plus.


            ***overnight, fourth quarter Chinese GDP was up 6.8% but that is the slowest rate of growth in 25 years; in addition, December Chinese industrial output, retail sales and fixed investments were below expectations.  The IMF lowered its 2016/2017 global growth estimates.

            An interview with Art Cashin (medium):

            Italian banks in trouble (medium):


   This Week’s Data




  International War Against Radical Islam

            The immigration problem in Europe (medium):

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