Tuesday, January 26, 2016

The Morning Call--Is it already over?

The Morning Call


The Market

The indices (DJIA 15882, S&P 1877) had another bad day.  The Dow closed [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] below its 200 day moving average, now resistance, [c] below the lower boundary of a short term downtrend {16872-17620}, [c] within an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295}, [d] in a long term uptrend {5471-19343}, [e] and still within a series of lower highs.

The S&P finished [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] below its 200 day moving average, now resistance [c] below the lower boundary of a short term downtrend {1925-2014}, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {1867-2134}, [e] in a long term uptrend {800-2161}  and [f] still within a series of lower highs. 

Volume was down---a small plus; breadth deteriorated.  The VIX was up 8% and ended [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support and [b] in short term, intermediate term and long term trading ranges. 
The long Treasury rose, finishing above its 100 day moving average, now support and within short term and intermediate term trading ranges.

GLD was up 1%, ending right on its 100 day moving average (a ray of promise?), now resistance and [b] within short, intermediate and long term downtrends. 

Bottom line: as rough as yesterday’s pin action was, I don’t think that the oversold bounce is necessary over.  The key is how the indices behave at the 15842/1867 level; and clearly, they are not that far away.  If those levels hold, then we turn our attention to the resistance levels I mentioned last Friday.  If not, then almost surely the bounce is over and most likely a bear market will have begun.  Somewhat scarily, there is only minor visible support (14256/1526) below 15842/1867 until prices hit the 11000/1077.  Caution.

            Some history on the January Barometer (medium):



            This week got off to a rocky start.  In the US, the Dallas Fed reported a horrible January manufacturing index.  Overseas, the 2015 Russian economic growth came in down
On the other hand, the Bank of China continued to inject liquidity into its markets; and the Bank of Japan said that it would also do so if needed.  Which leads me to what will likely be this week’s big event: the FOMC meets.  That should make Wednesday interesting, especially if the narrative remains somewhat hawkish in the face of all the QE talk from the rest of the major global central banks and the continued turmoil in the Market.

            ***overnight, the Bank of China again injected funds into its financial system; however, stocks plunged.  Draghi chastised the markets for not believing his ‘whatever is necessary’ routine.

Bottom line: no improvement in the US or global economic news.  Not helping matters are the fruitless efforts of most of the global central banks to stimulate growth but succeed only in propping up sick companies/industries and raising the volatility of asset prices.  I encourage you to read both of the following articles which address how declining oil prices are having a negative impact on global capital flows and how that is effecting US stock prices.

The Eurodollar money base is shrinking (medium and a must read):

            And the spread between junk bonds and Treasuries is widening (medium and also a must read):

I am not suggesting that investors run for the hills.  I am suggesting that on any rally that (1) they take some profits in winners that have held up during this decline and/or eliminate investments that have been a disappointment and (2) they lose the notion of ‘buying

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            The latest from Jim Bianco (medium):

       ETF Highlight

Van Kampen Municipal Opportunity Trust (VMO) is a closed-end management investment company.  Its investment objective is to provide a high level of current income exempt from federal income tax, consistent with the preservation of capital.

The fund invests approximately 98% of its assets in bonds and may be considered for investors seeking a Municipal - National strategy.  The Invesco Municipal Opportunity has returned an annual rate of 6.26% since inception. More recently, the fund has generated a total return of 5.69% in the last five years, 2.40% in the last three years, and 17.79% in the last year.  In 2015, VMO returned 13.54%. Downside risk has been below average, has a three year standard deviation of 11.8% and fund has had moderate volatility in its monthly performance over the last 36 months. As VMO is a closed end fund, it has no front end or back end load.  The ETF Portfolio owns a full position in VMO.

       Investing for Survival
            The importance of growth rates:

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW): Q4 EPS of $2.49 beats by $0.25.
Revenue of $2.48B (-1.2% Y/Y) beats by $10M

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q4 EPS of $1.80 beats by $0.17.
Revenue of $7.3B (-5.4% Y/Y) beats by $90M

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) Q4 results ($M): Total Revenues: 17,811 (-2.4%); Consumer: 3,320 (-7.9%); Pharmaceutical: 8,064 (+0.8%); Medical Devices & Diagnostics: 6,427 (-3.3%).
Revenues by region: U.S.: 9,293 (+8.0%); Europe: 4,002 (-12.2%); W. Hemisphere ex-U.S.: 1,442 (-19.1%); Asia Pacific & Africa: 3,074 (-7.1%).
Sample of sales by product/segment: OTC: 1,045 (-2.6%); Remicade: 1,680 (+0.5%); Orthopedics: 2,423 (-0.7%); Surgery: 2,413 (-2.5%); Stelara: 742 (+36.1%).
Net Income: 3,215 (+27.5%), EPS: 1.15 (+29.2%); Non-GAAP Net Income: 4,043 (+11.9%); Non-GAAP EPS: 1.44 (+5.1%).
2016 Guidance: Revenues: $70.8 - 71.5B; Non-GAAP EPS: $6.43 - 6.58.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): FQ2 EPS of $1.04 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $16.92B (-8.5% Y/Y) misses by $20M

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD): Q4 EPS of $1.31 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of $6.34B (-3.5% Y/Y) beats by $120M


   This Week’s Data

            The January Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -34.6 versus expectations of -14.0.

            Month to date retail chain store sales declined from the prior week’s results.

            David Stockman on our auto loan problem (medium):



A 1990 Playboy interview with Trump.  You can skip the author’s preamble and go straight to the interview (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            More on Europe’s immigration problem (medium):

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