Monday, January 11, 2016

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Monday Morning Chartology

            You don’t need this chart to tell how ugly last week’s pin action was.  However, it helps to tell you the extent of the ugliness.  The S&P: (1) blew through its 100 day moving average, which is now resistance and headed lower, (2) successfully challenged its short term trading range, resetting to a downtrend; indeed the damage was so extensive, the S&P closed below what would logically be the lower boundary of its new short term downtrend, (3) will successfully challenge of its intermediate term uptrend unless it rallies 22 points today.  

I also marked the 1867 support level.  If that doesn’t hold, 1576 is the next visible support level (versus current Fair Value of 1528).

            The January barometer (short):

            The long Treasury acted reasonably well through last week’s carnage in the stock market.  It likely reflected a ‘safe haven’ trade.  However, if the economy is indeed heading toward a recession, it will probably gain additional strength.

            Despite its recent effort to rally, GLD remains below its 100 day moving average (which continues to decline) and within short term, intermediate term and long term downtrends.

            The VIX is clearly reflecting the turmoil in the stock market.  It is in an uptrend going back to October 2015 and its 100 day moving average is now support.


            Another Fed banker admits ‘we got it wrong’ (medium):

            Why stock buybacks will likely decline despite more attractive prices (medium):

       Investing for Survival
            The problem with chasing performance in any form.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data


            Problems in the emerging markets (medium):

            Problems in Portuguese banks (medium):



  International War Against Radical Islam

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