Tuesday, September 29, 2015

The Morning Call---Is the schizophrenic phase over?

The Morning Call


The Market

The indices (DJIA 16001, S&P 1881) got hammered yesterday.  The Dow ended [a] below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, both of which represent resistance, [b] in a short term downtrend {17139-17874}, [c] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295}and [d] in a long term uptrend {5369-19175}.

The S&P finished [a] below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, both of which represent resistance, [b] below the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend, [c] in a short term downtrend {2004-2068}, [d] challenging its intermediate term uptrend {1920-2713} and [e] a long term uptrend {797-2145}. 

While the Dow remains above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (15842), the S&P busted through the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (1920); if remains there through the close on Thursday, the trend will re-set to a trading range. 

Just so that you are aware the next two levels of support are the August low of 1867 and last October’s low of 1819---which clearly the former is not that far away.   A lot of technicians are paying more attention to those August and October lows than the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend as the most likely level for a bounce.  Indeed, many are hoping that rebound off the August low will represent a double bottom and set the Market up for a return to the highs.

Volume rose; breadth was terrible. The VIX (27.6) was up 17%, remaining [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] within a short term uptrend and  [c] within an intermediate term trading range {it remains well above the upper boundary of its former intermediate term downtrend} and a long term trading range. 

The long Treasury was up 2%, closing above its 100 day moving average, still support; and within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges.  The takeaway is that it remains in a very short term trading that has existed since the August Market lows.  A pattern that is being copied by oil; however, the dollar dropped below its 100 day moving average.  If it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance.

GLD fell 1.25%, finishing [a] below its 100 day moving average, still resistance, [b] back below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, voiding last Thursday’s break to the upside, [c] within intermediate and long term downtrends and [d] is still developing a very short term uptrend. 

            Have the banksters been rigging the gold market?

Bottom line: despite the whackage stocks experienced yesterday, that doesn’t mean that the schizophrenia is over.  Based on recent trading, we could easily be up strong today.  There is a difference now; and that is that the Averages are near multiple support levels.  So we have some guideposts to watch.  If the indices break those intermediate term trends, then we will likely experience the valuation mean reversion that I have been expecting.   However, it hasn’t happened yet.


            More poor economic news.  Yesterday, August personal spending was in line with estimates, but personal income was below.  In addition, August pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index were both below forecasts.  So we are off to another lousy week for data.

            The better personal spending numbers improved the Atlanta Fed’s third quarter GDP estimate (short):

            Several anecdotal events also appear to be putting pressure on stock prices: (1) Hillary’s assault on drug prices are not helping the biotechs, which has been one of the strongest segments in the Market, (2) the stock of Glencore, a major commodities trading firm, is getting bashed and the credit default spreads on its debt is mushrooming, creating even more pressure on the commodity stocks which are in major bear markets, (3) the news on Volkswagen, a major employer in Germany, is not getting any better, and (4) Carl Icahn, in a major memo to the Market, is suggesting a catastrophe is nigh. 

            Ichan’s comments:

            In addition, global news didn’t help: IMF says 3.3% global growth is no longer realistic; August Chinese industrial profits fell and its largest miner laid off a quarter of its workforce.  Finally, pro-independence parties won a majority of seats in the Catalonian parliament but only 48% of the vote; 50% is needed to hold a referendum.

            ***overnight, in a procedural vote, passed the continuing resolution; the real vote is tomorrow; the Indian central bank lowered key rates more than anticipated.

Bottom line:  the economic data just stays lousy both here and abroad.  The Fed and our political class are doing nothing to help.  In addition, there has been a number of anecdotal developments that could be suggesting that economic conditions may be worse than reflected in the official data.  All these notions are currently making their challenge on stock prices.  While my bias is that they will be successful, that won’t make it so.  But we will know soon enough.

In the meantime, I continue to believe that right now, short term the technicals are more important to watch than the fundamentals.’

            Some thoughts on historic valuation (short):

            Goldman lowers 2015/2016 earnings per share and price target (medium):

   This Week’s Data

            The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -9.5 versus expectations of -9.0.

                August pending home sales fell 1.4% versus forecasts of up 0.5%.

            The August US trade deficit was $67.2 billion versus consensus of $59.1 billion.




Trump tax reform plan (medium):


            The Sino-American codependency trap (medium):

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