Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P continues to trade in a narrow range. It did finish the week above the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend and its 100 day moving average; so there is some momentum to the upside. However, there are still overhead barriers (the downward sloping black trend line, the late February high) that have to be breached before it can take on the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.
The long Treasury remains within a short term trading range, intermediate and long term uptrends and above the 50 day moving average. Note the very short term trading range (the horizontal black lines).
GLD is still struggling. It closed within short and intermediate term trading ranges, a long term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average. It broke below the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend on Thursday but then recovered on Friday. A lot of work remains to be done for this chart to look positive.
The VIX fell on Friday, ending below the lower boundary of that pennant formation to which I have been referring for the last couple of weeks. A close below it today would break the pattern to the downside, suggesting more downside (and more upside to stocks). On the other hand, it is not that far from the lower boundaries of its short and long term trading ranges---the latter should offer some serious resistance. I continue to think that at these prices it represents cheap portfolio insurance.
Getting out of the mess the Fed has made for itself (medium):
Investing for Survival
The paradox of diversification (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
More fallout from the bankrupt Austrian bank (medium):
Quote of the day (short);
International War Against Radical Islam
Krauthammer on the Iran nuke deal (medium):