Tuesday, October 9, 2018

The Morning Call--Back to reality

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages (DJIA 26486, S&P 2884) recovered from a major early sell off to end mixed on the day (Dow up, S&P down).  Volume was flat and breadth improved.  The most important technical point is that the S&P touched the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and bounced---a mild positive.  They remain technically very strong.    My assumption is that they will challenge the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends (29807, 3065).
The VIX rose another 6 ½ %, a bigger move than I expected on a mixed day.  It finished above its 100 DMA for a third day, reverting to support and above its 200 DMA for second day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday it will revert to support).  As you know, it has not been following the normal script of late and is now at the upper end of its short term trading range---a negative for stocks. 

The long bond (futures) fell again (the cash market was closed).  It has ended below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range for three days (if it remains there today, it will reset to a downtrend).  This would clearly be a negative technical development to say nothing of the implications fundamentally.

            More pain to come.

            Higher rates starting to impact larger economies.

The dollar was up, continuing its march toward its August high.  I continue to believe that UUP will move higher as long as the dollar funding problem persists. 

GLD declined 1%, something to be expected on an up dollar, down bond day.  It remains an ugly chart.

          Bottom line: the indices remain technically strong. I continue to believe that they will challenge the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.
         The terrible pin action in the long bond appears to be signaling a huge change in bond investors economic/valuation model.  It has broken its long term uptrend and now is about to do the same with its intermediate term trading range.   The dollar is confirming a liquidity shortage.  GLD continues to act negative no matter what happens in stocks, bonds, oil, the dollar----I could go on.
            Monday in the charts.



            Our ruling class had yesterday off.  So no economic data and little other news.  However, rates continued to rise overseas and the dollar continued to strengthen.  I think neither a big plus though clearly stocks don’t agree.


            The dollar funding problem now has Pakistan in its grips.

            IMF cuts global and US 2018 economic growth forecasts.

            Bottom line: at the moment, I believe that the upward trend in interest rates is the most important variable on which to focus because it is signaling the end of QE, which I believe will be a big negative for equities.  As I noted above, equity investors are not concerned and they may be right.  But we are nearing to point at which my thesis (QE was great for stocks so unwinding it will be bad) will be proven correct or not.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


   This Week’s Data


            The September small business optimism index was reported at 107.9 versus expectations of 108.



            US exports to China are down.  However, remember a big part of that decline is in soybeans and oil, which are fungible products, i.e. if Brazil is selling more soybeans to China, then it is selling less to someone, who will buy US soybeans.

                Meanwhile, China is not doing so well.


What I am reading today

            How to fight retirement boredom.

            5G is about to change your life.

            Developing a strategy that survives the breaks.

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