The Morning Call
9/17/18
The
Market
Technical
Nothing in the S&P’s
chart even hints that it won’t challenge the upper boundary of its long term
uptrend.
The long bond had a bad
week and is now on the cusp of breaking a long term uptrend that is twenty plus
years old. Under my time and distance
discipline, that challenge becomes successful today if TLT can’t regain the
lower boundary of that long term uptrend.
That said, as you can see, it has unsuccessfully challenged this
boundary six times this year alone---though, to be sure, several of those
challenges lasted longer than normal.
This is by far the most important chart to watch at the moment because
of the economic and Market implications of a break of that uptrend which would presage
a move towards much higher in rates.
The dollar also had a
rough week but managed to bounce on Friday on big volume, making a second higher
low. Viz a viz its moving averages and
its short term uptrend, it remains strong technically. As you know, I believe that it will continue
to do so as long as dollar funding problems persist.
This would be laughable if
it weren’t so sad. Clearly, gold investors
believe interest rates are going higher.
The
VIX traded back below its 100 and 200 DMA’s last week and appears headed for
another challenge of the lower boundary of its short term trading range. It is supporting a move higher in equities.
Fundamental
Headlines
It
keeps getting worse in Turkey (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
September NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 19 versus expectations of
23.
International
Other
What
I am reading today
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