Monday, September 17, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

9/17/18

The Market
         
    Technical

              Nothing in the S&P’s chart even hints that it won’t challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.
                                


              The long bond had a bad week and is now on the cusp of breaking a long term uptrend that is twenty plus years old.  Under my time and distance discipline, that challenge becomes successful today if TLT can’t regain the lower boundary of that long term uptrend.  That said, as you can see, it has unsuccessfully challenged this boundary six times this year alone---though, to be sure, several of those challenges lasted longer than normal.  This is by far the most important chart to watch at the moment because of the economic and Market implications of a break of that uptrend which would presage a move towards much higher in rates.



             The dollar also had a rough week but managed to bounce on Friday on big volume, making a second higher low.  Viz a viz its moving averages and its short term uptrend, it remains strong technically.  As you know, I believe that it will continue to do so as long as dollar funding problems persist.



             This would be laughable if it weren’t so sad.  Clearly, gold investors believe interest rates are going higher.



            The VIX traded back below its 100 and 200 DMA’s last week and appears headed for another challenge of the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  It is supporting a move higher in equities.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            It keeps getting worse in Turkey (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The September NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 19 versus expectations of 23.

     International

    Other

What I am reading today

           

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