Saturday, September 2, 2017

The Closing Bell

The Closing Bell

9/2/17

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2016 actual

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.6%
Inflation (revised)                                                              1.6%                     
Corporate Profits (revised)                                                     4.2%

2017 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                      -1.25-+0.5%
                        Inflation                                                                         +.0.5-1.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                            -15-0%



   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                 20966-23475
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     18800-26131
Long Term Uptrend                                  5751-24198
                                               
                        2016    Year End Fair Value                                   12600-12800

                        2017     Year End Fair Value                                   13100-13300

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend     (?)                           2447-2732
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         2233-3007
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2763
                                               
                        2016   Year End Fair Value                                      1560-1580
                       
2017 Year End Fair Value                                       1620-1640         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing an upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was well above average and, in the end, slightly weighed to the negative: above estimates:  the June Case Shiller home price index, August and month to date retail chain store sales, the ADP August private payroll report, weekly jobless claims, August consumer confidence, the August Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index, the August Chicago PMI, the August ISM manufacturing index, revised second quarter GDP; below estimates: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, the July pending home sales index, July construction spending, August nonfarm payrolls, August consumer sentiment, July personal spending, August light vehicle sales, July retail inventories, July wholesale inventories, the August manufacturing PMI, July export and import prices, revised second quarter corporate profits; in line with estimates: July personal income.

The primary indicators were solidly negative: revised second quarter GDP (+), July personal income (0), July construction spending (-), July personal spending (-), August nonfarm payrolls (-).   So again, an easy call---negative.  Score: in the last 99 weeks, twenty-nine were positive, fifty-four negative and sixteen neutral. 

It would appear that the four week string of neutral ratings was just a brief respite in the midst of slowing economy.  I would still like a bit more data before making that call.

Overseas, the EU data continues to improve while the Chinese numbers were mixed, but getting better.   

The other notable item on the economic front was the impact of Hurricane Harvey on Texas and Louisiana.  All we have at the moment are estimates of the damage, so we really don’t know the ultimate effect.  There is talk among the financial class that this tragedy will prove beneficial in an economic sense; that is, all the reconstruction work and replacement spending on lost items will be stimulative.

 I have a hard time with this narrative (1) it makes no mathematical sense to argue that destroying $150 billion dollars in assets is a positive economically because [a] that money could have been spent on something else which would have been additive to the economy and [b] many of those assets will never be replaced.  First of all, insurance doesn’t cover flood damage.  There are many victims that simply won’t be able to afford to replace lost items.  Parts of Houston are like the ninth ward in New Orleans---houses will get scrapped and never rebuilt.  Plus, what bank is going to lend the money and what insurance company is going insure?, (2) as I noted earlier this week, if the aforementioned was a valid argument, then Hiroshima would have been economically stimulative for Japan.

Harvey wreaking havoc in the chemical industry (medium):

And if that wasn’t enough; beware Hurricane Irma (medium):

Here is another problem that almost no one is talking about (you can ignore the politics if you like):

The other item I have to mention is that Trump went an entire week during which he made two major speeches and never insulted or threatened anyone or made some lame, factually challenged statement.  If he can just keep doing that, the odds of passage of some or all on the Trump/GOP fiscal agenda will go up.

Bottom line: this week’s US economic stats were negative, confirming the pattern for the last 18 months---the economy struggling to keep its head above water.  At some point, I would think that the improving European economy would have some positive influence on our own; but for the moment, that is not happening.

Longer term, I remain confident in my recent upgrading our long term secular growth rate assumption by 25 to 50 basis points based on Trump’s deregulation efforts.    However, any further increase in that long term secular economic growth rate assumption stemming from enactment of the Trump/GOP fiscal policy is still on hold as the Washington morality play unfolds. 

Our (new and improved) forecast:

A positive pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  This increase in growth could be further augmented by pro-growth fiscal policies including repeal of Obamacare, tax reform and infrastructure spending; though the odds of that are uncertain. 

Short term, the economy is struggling and will likely continue to do so; though the improving global economy may at some point have an impact.

The hurdle debt poses to long term economic growth (medium):
                       
       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Nothing this week.

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy.  for the first time in a while, Trump actually made it through the week without stepping on his own dick:

[a] he acted and sounded presidential in his handling of the hurricane tragedy in Texas and Louisiana,

[b] he kept his cool after the disturbing North Korean launch of a missile that over flew Japan.  No ‘fire and fury’ or other bombastic rhetoric.  I am not suggesting that there will be no repercussions.  I am just saying that hopefully he is adopting Teddy Roosevelt’s strategy of ‘talk softly but carry a big stick’.

I don’t know if we just got lucky or the Donald is finally reigning himself in.  We will know that soon enough.  But if he is gaining some self-control, it would be a plus for the implementation of the Trump/GOP fiscal agenda.  That doesn’t mean that it will get passed; it just means that the odds would go up.

***late yesterday, Trump blinked on his threat to shut down the government if congress didn’t fund the wall, informing congress that funding for the wall need not be in the legislation raising the debt limit.

[c] Trump presented his proposal for tax reform and apparently will make a series of speeches promoting it. The major points were simplifying the tax code, lowering corporate tax rates, lowering middle class tax rates and repatriating the foreign profits of US firms. On the surface, it sounded great.  However, it was woefully short of details, the most important of which was where the money comes from to pay for it. 

But just to reiterate my bottom line on this issue: [a] if the fiscal agenda doesn’t get enacted, it is not bad news.  The result would be continued gridlock and historically, that has been good news.  However, it would mean that the potential economic benefits from tax reform and infrastructure spending would not occur and [b] even if tax reform and infrastructure spending do happen but further increase the deficit spending and the federal debt, that would be a negative, in my opinion.
     
(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

Not a lot occurred on this front this week.  The Bank of Japan said that it would maintain an accommodative monetary policy.  And in an interview, Draghi sounded the same.  So there is no real news here. 

I do think that the economic fallout from Harvey could very well provide the cover the Fed needs to do nothing in its September and perhaps even its December meetings.  But I was giving even odds of nothing occurring anyway; so again, what is new.

My thesis here remains unchanged: any tightening in monetary policy will have little impact on the economy but will likely wreak havoc on the securities’ markets.

Counterpoint:

(4)   geopolitical risks:  North Korea remained a hotspot as the regime launched a series of missiles, one of which over flew Japan.  That is really a major no no for anyone; and the good news is that the international community treated as such.  Meanwhile, Trump surprisingly kept his cool; though the US did respond by sending B 1 bombers and the US’s most sophisticated fighter jets to South Korea.  To be sure, this story isn’t over and there remains a decent probability of an unpleasant outcome.  But for the moment, the US is acting the part of the adult in the room.   

Still there remains plenty of hotspots that could explode any minute: Syria, the Qatar sanctions, US/Russian confrontation, the US sanctions on Chinese and Russian individuals/companies, Trump’s aggressive language on Iran and Venezuela. 

I am not trying to fear monger war; but I do think that Trump’s aggressive attitude toward foreign opposition is overdone and increases the risk of a costly misstep.  Hopefully, this week’s performance marks a change in his presentation.

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  This week:

[a] August EU economic confidence hit a ten year high, inflation was slightly above consensus; the August EU manufacturing PMI was in line while the UK PMI was above estimates, German unemployment declined,

[b] August Chinese industrial profits increased but at a slower rate than anticipated; August Chinese manufacturing PMI and Caixin PMI came in above expectations while the services PMI was below.

In sum, our outlook remains that the European economy is out of the woods.  In addition, the Chinese economy seems to be improving; though it is too soon to change our forecast.


            Bottom line:  our near term forecast is that the US economy is stagnate though there is a possibility that the improved regulatory outlook and a now growing EU economy may halt any worsening.  Further, if Trump/GOP were to pull off a (near) revenue neutral healthcare reform, tax reform and infrastructure spending on a reasonably timely basis, I would suspect that sentiment driven increases in business and consumer spending would return. 

Fortunately, the Donald went the entire week without pissing anyone off or sticking his foot in his mouth.  We can only hope this is the beginning of a trend because if it is, the odds of some kind of fiscal reform probably goes up.    I dwell on this because, at the moment, in my opinion, the single biggest factor that could impact a change in the future long term US secular economic growth rate is the success or failure of the Trump/GOP fiscal program.

To be sure, Trump’s drive for deregulation and improved bureaucratic efficiency is and will remain a decided plus.  As you know, I inched up my estimate of the long term secular growth rate of the economy because of it.  But the order of magnitude of its effect I believe is less than the enactment of healthcare, tax reform and infrastructure spending would be.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The indices (DJIA 21987, S&P 2475) ended the week on a high note with much improved breadth but weaker volume.  Both are above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames.  The only impediment to a move on the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends is the resistance offered by their former all-time highs.

The VIX (10.1) fell another 4 ½ % on Friday, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, below its 100 day moving average for the third day, reverting to resistance, below its 200 day moving average for the third day (if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will revert to resistance) and below the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  It is again challenging the lower boundaries of its former intermediate and long term trading ranges.  The question as to whether or not the VIX has bottomed is about to be answered.

The long Treasury declined 1% on volume, but ended above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  The negative in this chart is that this week it touched a prior resistance level and fell back.  However, this is only a problem if it fails to make a higher low.

The dollar rose, but still finished in a short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a series of six lower highs.  The only good news is that it remained above the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

 GLD had a good day (week), ending above the lower boundaries of its short term and very short term uptrends and above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support).

Bottom line: the Averages are now back in sync and moving higher.  The level to watch now is their former all-time highs.  Surpass that level and there will be no resistance until they meet the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.

On the other hand, the performances of TLT, GLD and UUP are not reflecting an improving economy; if that is what has equity investors jiggy.  I continue to be uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.
             
Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (21987) finished this week about 68.1% above Fair Value (13074) while the S&P (2475) closed 53.2% overvalued (1615).  ‘Fair Value’ will likely be changing based on a new set of regulatory policies which has led to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy (though its extent could change as the effects become more obvious); but it still reflects the elements of a botched Fed transition from easy to tight money and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Japan and China.

The US economic stats continue to reflect sluggish to little growth.  Street economic growth expectations are more optimistic---grounded on fiscal policy reform.  This got a boost this week from (1) the Trump tax reform proposal; though to be fair, there were few details and nothing about what it would cost and (2) Trump acting like an adult.  In two speeches, he remained on script, did not insult or threaten anyone, did not respond to the media baits and avoided any volatile factually challenged comments. Now if he can just keep restraining himself, we might actually get some pro growth economic fiscal policies. 

That said, gridlock is not the worst thing that could happen.  Indeed, a tax/infrastructure bill that explodes the federal debt/deficit even higher would be more economically detrimental than nothing happening. 

In any case, I believe that Street estimates for economic and corporate profit growth are higher than my own and that could in turn lead to declining growth expectations as well as valuations.  The question is when; and more important from a Market standpoint, given investor proclivity for interpreting bad news as good news, whether they will even care.  I can’t answer that latter issue except to say that someday, bad news will be bad news.

That said, fiscal policy is a distant second where it comes to Market impact.  The 800 pound gorilla for equity valuations is central bank monetary policy.  Unfortunately, this crowd continues to confuse, obfuscate and pursue a policy that has destroyed price discovery---and it is being done not to have some potential positive effect on the economy, but to avoid a Market hissy fit.  Not something that I believe is in the best long term interests of the economy or the Markets.    As you know, I have long time believed that the loss of faith in or the dismantling of QE will result in correcting the mispricing and misallocation of assets.

Net, net, my biggest concern for the Market is the unwinding of the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets caused by the Fed’s (and the rest of the world’s central banks) wildly unsuccessful, experimental QE policy.   Stock prices have ballooned and are now at or near historical extremes in valuation; and there is no reason to assume that mean reversion no longer occurs.

Bottom line: the assumptions on long term secular growth in our Economic Model are beginning to improve as we learn about the new regulatory policies and their magnitude.  Plus, there is a tiny ray of hope that fiscal policy could further increase that growth assumption though its timing and magnitude are unknown.  I continue to believe that the end results will be less than the current Street narrative suggests---which means Street models will ultimately will have to lower their consensus of Fair Value for equities. 

Our Valuation Model assumptions are also changing as I raise our long term secular growth rate estimate.  This will, in turn, lift the potential ‘E’ component of Valuations; but there is a decent probability that short term this could be at least partially offset by the reversal of seven years of asset mispricing and misallocation.  In any case, even with the improvement in our growth assumption, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own cash in my Portfolio and would use the current price strength to sell a portion of your winners and all of your losers.
               

DJIA             S&P

Current 2017 Year End Fair Value*              13200             1630
Fair Value as of 9/30/17                                  13074            1615
Close this week                                               21987            2475

Over Valuation vs. 9/30
             
55%overvalued                                   20264              2503
            60%overvalued                                   20918              2584
            65%overvalued                                   21572              2664
            70%overvalued                                   22258              2745


* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 47 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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