The Morning Call
5/1/17
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P had a good couple of days last week, negating that very short term downtrend
in the process. It appears to be resting
after the Monday/Tuesday moonshot---which is quite normal. Resistance now exists at its former high and
support at its moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term
uptrend. I think that the odds of move
up outweigh those of a down move.
However, as I have pointed out, in the technical world, those two gaps
in last week’s rise ultimately will get filled.
The question, is it near term before a further move up or longer term on
the way down after stocks make a new high.
The
long Treasury sold off last week. Though
there was little change in the technicals.
It remains above its 100 day moving average, below its 200 day moving
average, in a very short term downtrend, above its 100 day moving average and a
short term trading range. However, (1) it
voided an uptrend off the lower boundary of its short term trading range and
(2) it seems to be building support at the upper boundary of a four month
trading range dating back to November 2016.
Gold
sold off last week but remained technically strong as it held both moving
averages and its very short term uptrend. Certainly, it did not perform like
its investors are worried about higher interest rates.
The
dollar traded down last week remaining below its 100 day moving average, the upper
boundary of a very short term downtrend and back below its 200 day moving
average (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to
resistance). Meanwhile, the spread
between the declining very short term downtrend and the rising short term
uptrend continues to narrow.
The
VIX got hammered last week, destroying its very short term uptrend and
reverting to resistance in both of its moving averages. But it ended the week near very strong
support---the lower boundaries of its short and intermediate term trading
ranges. Further the lower boundary of
its long term trading range is just below those two boundaries. Finally, observe the giant gap down last
Monday----again those gaps get filled.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight,
April Chinese new orders for manufacturing and services fell to a six month
low.
Congress reaches
agreement to fund government through September (medium):
Investing for Survival
Thoughts
on the market from Peter Lynch.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
March
personal income rose 0.2% versus expectations of up 0.3%; personal spending was
flat versus estimates of +0.1%; the PCE price index was -0.2% versus forecasts
of -0.1%.
Other
Update
on oil (medium):
And
its impact on inflation (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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