The Morning Call
6/6/16
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P remains stuck in a very tight trading range. The bad news is that it can’t generate enough
momentum to push through the upper boundary of its short term trading
range. The good news is that the bears
keep trying to push it down, but just can’t get the job done. I would have thought that Friday’s lousy
nonfarm payroll report would have upset the bull’s apple cart. But they hung in there.
The
long Treasury soared on Friday on the assumption that the poor jobless number
takes a June and perhaps a July Fed rate hike off the table. As you can see, it destroyed the very short
term downtrend and is now poised to challenge the upper boundary of its
intermediate term trading range.
GLD
also spiked on the prospect of no Fed interest rate hike. Clearly the risk of trading down through the
100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term trading range
has been negated, at least, for the moment.
The
VIX is back near the lower boundary of its short term trading range, which it
has bounced off of four times. If it
breaks this boundary, it would be good news for stocks. In addition, the 100 day moving average is
now heading down; also a potential plus for stocks.
Fundamental
Two
Fed bank chiefs spoke over the weekend and reiterated the likelihood of a rate
increase. Yellen speaks this afternoon.
April
German industrial orders came in below expectations.
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