The Morning Call
4/18/16
sorry i can't get my
'insert picture' to function
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P had a good week last week, setting a higher high. But it was unsuccessful
in its challenge of the upper boundary of its short term trading range. Of course, it barely broke above that upper
boundary and barely retreated below it. So
neither move holds a lot of significance.
On the other hand, the Dow did successfully challenge its short term
trading range and reset to an uptrend on Friday. However, I think that generally the S&P
has a stronger gravitational pull than the Dow; in other words, I give the
S&P more weight. To round this out, (1)
volume was weak including Friday which was an option expiration day and (2) the
flow of funds indicator appears to be rolling over.
I
have included the chart on the dollar again because it continues trade in
tandem with the market. I am not sure which is driving which. In any case, you can see that the dollar
unsuccessfully challenged the lower boundary of its short term trading range
which, somewhat counterintuitively, is a plus for stocks.
While
TLT’s performance last week was not the great, it still remained within very
short term and short term uptrends and above its 100 day moving average and a
key Fibonacci support level.
Gold
continued to consolidate. While it
remained in a very short term downtrend, it recovered above a key Fibonacci
support level. Still more work to do but
it sure looks like a bottom has been made.
The
VIX backed off last week, but it left the very short term downtrend broken and remained
above the lower boundary of its short term trading range. Depending on how the Market opens today, the
Aggressive Growth Portfolio will likely Buy additional shares of VXX. Please remember this is only for the strong
of heart and it is a trade.
Fundamental
The
two indicators not included in last Friday’s note were industrial production
(-0.6% versus -0.1% expected) and consumer sentiment (89.7 versus 91.8 expected). The industrial production is by far the most
important. When coupled with the other
primary indicator reported last week (retail sales), it may be stretching it to
be optimistic.
Another
great piece on the economy and stock valuations from Lance Roberts (medium and
a must read):
Alternatives
to stocks (medium):
More
on the financial state of JP Morgan (medium and a must read):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/fed-sends-frightening-letter-jpmorgan-corporate-media-yawns
Remember
all those upbeat Chinese stats last week?
Here is the latest on what is going on in their bond market. Who do you believe?
Doha
disappointment (short):
Investing for Survival
What
every 25 year old should know about saving.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Revenue of $2.51B
(+2.9% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Revenue of $11.86B
(-2.9% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Deutschebank’s
derivatives portfolio (short):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
9/11,
congress and the Saudi new threat; this is going to get interesting (medium and
a must read):
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment