The Morning Call
2/16/16
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday Morning Chartology
Friday’s
pin action brought relief for the bulls. However, at this point in time, (1) Friday
looked like nothing but a rebound from an oversold position, (2) the S&P is
in very short term, short term and intermediate term downtrends and (3) it
could not recover the 1867 level. That doesn’t
mean a bottom hasn’t been made; but stocks have a lot of work to do to change the
downward momentum.
The
long Treasury had a strong week, the Friday down close notwithstanding. It could not successfully challenge the upper
boundary of its intermediate term trading range. That is not particularly unusual since the
intermediate trend tends to provide solid support/resistance. On the other hand, last week’s powerful spike
clearly over extended TLT to the upside.
It could do some more backing and filling; but the momentum remains to
the upside.
If
the TLT price performance is a spike, then GLD is a moonshot. Of course, it is much less liquid, so the
higher volatility is not surprising. But
look at the volume (bottom of chart).
Somebody thinks something major has changed; and generally when gold
roars the Market does just the opposite.
Along those lines, note that GLD retreated 0.59% on Friday while the
S&P was up 1.95%; in other words, the GLD buyers were not that impressed
with the motivations of the stock buyers.
There
has been and will likely continue to be a lot of speculation on where oil and
gas prices bottom out. I haven’t a
clue. But I wanted to show (purple
lines) the support level that energy has attempted to challenge several times
without success. So not too much should
be read into last Friday’s bounce.
Fundamental
Last
week was a slow one for US economic data; but overall the trend remained
negative (three indicators up, five down and two neutral). In addition, the one primary indicator
(retail sales) fell in the neutral group.
That puts the trend count at four up to mixed weeks and twenty down
weeks out of the last twenty four. Small
wonder investors are worried about recession.
***overnight,
fourth quarter Japanese GDP fell 1.4% versus expectations of down 0.8%; January
Chinese exports and imports were down even more than anticipated.
In
addition, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to ‘freeze’ crude oil output
contingent on other OPEC members agreeing to go along. Iran was unavailable for comment.
This
from a top hedge fund manager (medium):
China now trying
to sell its nonperforming loans to the US (short):
Negative
interest rates, deficits and defaults (medium):
Investing for Survival
When
diversification works.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $0.6575/share
quarterly dividend, 6.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.615
Revenue of $2.29B
(-4.6% Y/Y) misses by $110M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
February NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at -16.64 versus expectations
of -10.00
Other
Politics
Domestic
The latest immigration stats
(medium):
International War Against Radical
Islam
The
latest from Syria (medium):
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