The Morning Call
8/17/15
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P had a rough week. It reverted
its 100 day moving average from support to resistance and re-set its short term
trend from up to a trading range. Thus,
it began to re-sync with the DJIA on the downside.
Don’t
fear the death cross (short):
The
long Treasury continues to rally, trading above its 100 day moving average,
within short and intermediate term trading ranges and above the lower boundary of
a very short term uptrend. Until this
latest move up is thwarted, the no rate hike/economic slowdown scenario
prevails, aided by the trading in oil (see below).
The
GLD chart is just a little bit less ugly than it could be. The redeeming grace is that it has managed to
negate a very short term downtrend; and that could presage a bottom.
Oil
is rivalling gold for the worst looking chart in history. The difference is that there is a huge
difference in the economic impact of these two collapsing commodities. Energy is a key component of production; gold
is virtually irrelevant. Plunging energy
prices suggest growth and deflation problems.
VIX
was down on Friday, remaining below its 100 day moving average and within its
short and long term trading ranges. At
current price levels, it represents good value as portfolio insurance.
Fundamental
***overnight,
Japanese second quarter GDP fell 1.6% (good job Mr. Abe); the Chinese yuan
traded flat.
Investing for Survival
Owning your mistakes
(medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
August NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -14.92 versus expectations of
+4.75.
Other
States’
unfunded pension liabilities (short):
Monday
morning humor (short):
S&P
revenues ex-oil and ex-the dollar (short):
Politics
Domestic
The double
standard (short):
International War Against Radical Islam
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