Monday, August 17, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

8/17/15

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P had a rough week.  It reverted its 100 day moving average from support to resistance and re-set its short term trend from up to a trading range.  Thus, it began to re-sync with the DJIA on the downside.

            Don’t fear the death cross (short):


  
            The long Treasury continues to rally, trading above its 100 day moving average, within short and intermediate term trading ranges and above the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  Until this latest move up is thwarted, the no rate hike/economic slowdown scenario prevails, aided by the trading in oil (see below).



            The GLD chart is just a little bit less ugly than it could be.  The redeeming grace is that it has managed to negate a very short term downtrend; and that could presage a bottom.




            Oil is rivalling gold for the worst looking chart in history.  The difference is that there is a huge difference in the economic impact of these two collapsing commodities.  Energy is a key component of production; gold is virtually irrelevant.  Plunging energy prices suggest growth and deflation problems.



            VIX was down on Friday, remaining below its 100 day moving average and within its short and long term trading ranges.  At current price levels, it represents good value as portfolio insurance.



    Fundamental

            ***overnight, Japanese second quarter GDP fell 1.6% (good job Mr. Abe); the Chinese yuan traded flat.

       Investing for Survival

           Owning your mistakes (medium):

   
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The August NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -14.92 versus expectations of +4.75.

   Other

            States’ unfunded pension liabilities (short):

            Monday morning humor (short):

            S&P revenues ex-oil and ex-the dollar (short):

Politics

  Domestic

The double standard (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam







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