Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Morning Call---The can has been kicked

The Morning Call

7/16/15

The Market
           
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 18050, S&P 2107) basically flat lined yesterday.   Both closed above their 100 day moving average.  If they remain there by the close today, they will change this moving average from resistance to support.  Resistance exists at their all-time highs (18295/2135) and the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.

Longer term, the Averages are in uptrends across all timeframes: short term (17585-20409, 2073-3052), intermediate term (17780-23912, 1861-2629) and long term (5369-19175, 797-2145).  

Volume was flat; breadth negative.  The VIX (13.2) was down, ending below its 100 day moving average.  A price below 13.0 represents value as portfolio insurance.

The long Treasury was up 1%, likely reflecting the political turmoil (read riots) in Greece and finished below its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend. 

GLD declined (again demonstrating that it is not being viewed as a safe haven), closing below its 100 day moving average and the neckline of the head and shoulders formation and very near the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range. 

The dollar was up, like TLT, benefiting from the Greek unrest.  It finished above its 100 day moving average (a close above it on Friday will convert it from resistance to support) and above the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend (a close above it today will negate the trend).   Oil declined 3% (apparently Tuesday’s buyers sobered up), and ended below its 100 day moving average and near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

Bottom line: in the face of rioting in Greece and a plunge in Chinese stocks, I thought yesterday’s pin action showed remarkable strength.  Whether this was a function of another investor swoon over Yellen or a result of investors having decided that neither of the aforementioned are problems anymore is a question that should be answered in the coming days.  Low volume and poor breadth remain worrisome.  But price is truth and price continues to suggest an assault by the Averages on their all-time highs (18295/2135) and the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends---the latter of which I believe they will fail to challenge successfully.

            Is the correction over (medium)?

    Fundamental
   
       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic dataflow improved from Tuesday’s.  June PPI (as an aside, I am scoring any increase in inflation as a plus in as much as that is a Fed goal for returning to normalized monetary policy), the NY Fed manufacturing index and June industrial production (another of the big four indicators) were ahead of estimates; while weekly mortgage and purchase applications were disappointing.

            Update on big four economic indicators:

            In addition, there were two news items from the Fed: (1) Yellen’s congressional testimony was pretty much in line with the present Fed narrative [the economy is improving, but Greece and China worry us, so barring a disaster we will likely raise rates this year but it will be data dependent] and (2) the latest Fed Beige Book was released depicting a slightly less upbeat picture of the economy than the prior report.

            Finally, the White House budget office lowered its 2015 GDP growth and inflations estimates.

            ***overnight, senate introduced a bill to allow Puerto Rican public entities to declare bankruptcy.

            None of this gives reason for re-thinking our forecast.  Indeed, the better numbers provide a welcome offset to Tuesday’s lousy results.

            Overseas, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but at the same time lowered its 2015 GDP and inflation outlook  (their super terrific, giant economy sized QE apparently still not working); and China reported second quarter GDP and June retail sales and industrial production in line with their (optimistic) projections.
           
            ***overnight, ECB leaves rates unchanged.

China defends the veracity of its statistical measures (medium):

            ***overnight, Chinese debt to GDP was reported at 207%.

            Greece continued to claim center stage as the parliament debates the initial required approval for its surrender to the Troika (which most observers expect), amidst rioting in the streets.

            The eurozone fault lines (medium):

            Naked Capitalism still thinks that the odds favor a Grexit (medium):

            ***overnight, Greek parliament approves bail out agreement.  EU finance ministers meet to begin talks on short term funding for Greece and agreed in principle to fund a loan that would allow Greece to repay IMF and ECB.

Bottom line:  with the Averages down fractionally, investors clearly continued sanguine despite bad news from Greece and China.  Still neither situation has been resolved.  Somewhat better economic news along with the first day of Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony may have been a balm to investor worries.  In addition, any thought of Fed tightening is irrelevant until there is a conclusion to Greece and China.  On the other hand, the US economy remains in a below average growth pattern which I believe is getting even more below average---witness the latest Beige Book and revisions from the White House budget office. 

My point here is not that we are on the precipice of disaster.  My point is that in an economy that is growing sluggishly at best and that could potentially be impacted by foreign events, even if just fractionally, assuming higher stock valuations from already lofty heights is more a function of hope than analysis. 

As a result, I continue to believe that any price strength should be used to Sell stocks that have reached your profit objective or whose underlying company no longer meets your standards for financial strength.
            
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            June industrial production rose 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.2%; capacity utilization came in at 78.4 versus estimates of 78.2.

            Yellen made the first of two appearances in congress this week.  There was little new in her comment, the summary of which:

            In addition, the latest Fed Beige Book report was released yesterday.  It was generally slightly less upbeat than its immediate predecessor.

            Weekly jobless claims fell 15,000, in line.

   Other

            The best possible thing for low skilled workers (short):

            Small (business) is beautiful (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            An analyst in favor of the Iran nuke deal (medium):






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