The Morning Call
6/15/15
The
Market
Technical
Monday
Morning Chartology
The S&P
bounced hard on Wednesday closing back above its 100 day moving average and the
upper boundary of its very short term downtrend. It then reversed, failing to confirm the
break of the very short term downtrend; but still remains above the 100 day moving
average. So very short term the momentum
remains to the downside though certainly all the longer term trends continue in
uptrends.
More
on technical factors (medium):
The
long Treasury traded all the way down to the lower boundary of its short term downtrend
and bounced last week; it also remains well within its very short term downtrend
and below its 100 day moving average.
Momentum is clearly down (up) in prices (yields).
What
do you say a chart of random price moves?
Ask
Texas (medium):
VIX
is another chart of a lot of price directionless price movement. As long as it remains at lower price levels,
that is a plus for stock prices.
Fundamental
Headlines
Last
week in a nutshell:
(1) the economic
news was upbeat for the second week in a row and third time in twenty weeks,
(2) the
eurocrats continued their game of chicken.
Overnight, talks
break off but notice the give in the Troika’s position on pensions (medium):
(3) and in
demonstration that of the complete dysfunctionality of our ruling class, they
failed to Asian trade pact, one of the very few Obama initiatives that would
have actually helped the economy.
Divergences
in value and market internals (medium):
More
on valuation: update on the Q ratio (short):
The
futility of our global monetary experiment (medium and today’s must read):
Investing
for Survival
12
things I learned from David Tepper: #7
7. “There is a time to make
money and a time to not lose money.”
There is a time to reap and a time to sow. There is also
a time to be defensive and not lose money. Sometimes almost all potential
investments are properly put in the “too hard” pile. At times like this, the
best thing you can do is preserve what you already have. Investing is a
probabilistic activity. If you don’t have an investing thesis that is the
output of a sound investing process which is net present value positive, then
don’t invest. It’s that simple. Having a “too hard” pile is such a huge advantage
in life.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
June NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.98 versus expectations of +5.90.
Other
Household
net worth and debt. The problem with this
analysis is that net worth is being driven by asset pricing resulting from a
misallocation of capital and the debt ‘bubble’ has little to do with household
debt. (medium):
When
our current best is worse that our prior worst (short):
Politics
Domestic
Arrests and
crimes in Baltimore (short):
Quote of the day
(short):
More on student
loans (medium):
International War Against Radical
Islam
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