Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The Morning Call---A trade war hasn't happened yet, QE and the deficit have


The Morning Call

6/26/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24252, S&P 2717) got hammered yesterday on rising volume and deteriorating breadth.  The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) while the S&P remained above (now support).  The DJIA ended right on its 200 day moving average while the S&P remains well above its MA (both now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 
               
                The VIX spiked 26 %, closing right on its 100 day moving average (now resistance), above its 200 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains through the close on Thursday, it will revert to support.  Remember it has see sawed above and below this MA over the last three weeks) and within a short term trading range.  It looks like it bottomed in early June. 

The long Treasury was up ¼ %, closing above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend but below its 200 day moving average (though it is again getting close) and remained in a short term downtrend.  It seems trapped in the range defined by those indicators.

The dollar was down fractionally, but ended below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range.  However, it is still above both moving averages and within a short term uptrend.

Well, Virginia, gold can go up, but with no consistency.  Yesterday, it was down, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.
               
Bottom line: more cognitive dissonance yesterday with the Dow closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), which is headed lower, and right on its 200 day moving average.  The S&P remains above both its moving averages, though like the Dow, its 100 day moving average is rolling over.  But until the S&P is in sync with the Dow, it is too soon to get negative. 

On the other hand, bonds and the dollar continue to trade at odds with each other; and gold is declining no matter what the news or the pin action in other indicators. In short, we are getting no directional information from these indices.

            Update on margin debt (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were negative: both the June Chicago Fed national activity index and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index were really bad; on the other hand, May new home sales (a primary indicator) were very strong.  In other words, more incongruent data, suggesting a struggling economy.

            But the day was mostly about trade: Trump threatening China and China responding.       

            Stephen Roach on Trump’s trade policy (medium):

            China girds for trade war (medium):

            And starts talking tough (medium):

            Late in the afternoon, Navarro provides some soothing words (short):
           
            Making sense of Trump’s strategy (medium):

            ***overnight, Trump back on the EU auto tariffs (medium):

Bottom line: the threat of a trade war continues to raise uncertainty among investors.  To be sure, if things go to hell in a handbasket, it would have a negative impact on economic activity and corporate profitability.  Conversely, a successful completion of the trade negotiations would be a major plus.

From a Market perspective, stocks may fluctuate based on the tone of the rhetoric; but I don’t see a change in trend (or the lack thereof) until we know the outcome of the current confrontation.  I would juxtapose that with QE and an out of control fiscal policy both of which we already have and both of which are bad for the Markets long term.

If I am correct, equity valuations are too high and investors need to have cash in their portfolios.

            Declining Market liquidity (medium):
           
            And the role ETF’s may play in the illiquidity (medium):
           
            The myth of stocks for the long run (part 4):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            May new home sales were up 6.6% versus consensus of up 0.4%.

            The June Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.3 versus expectations of 35.2.

     International

    Other

            Global finance governance ten years after the crisis (medium);

            Trump’s fascinating economic experiment (medium):

            I think that this guy has been reading my posts (medium):

What I am reading today

            Getting rich slowly (medium):

            The secret to a meaningful life (medium):

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