Monday, September 11, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P is holding above its moving averages and the lower boundaries of the uptrends across over all timeframes.  But I have to add ‘just barely’ with respect to its short term uptrend.  It is hugging that ascending support level but has been unable to push above its early August high.  Those boundaries will soon converge and when they do, we should get some directional information.

            The long Treasury had another strong week, maintaining its position above both moving averages and above the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and staying above the June resistance level for a second day.  This Market continues to point to lower rates, no Fed rate hike and a weaker economy.

            I opted to show the long term chart of the dollar so you could get a sense of how little support there is between current levels and it 2012/2014 lows.

            Like the dollar chart, I wanted to give you a long term look at GLD.  Now that it has reset its short term trend to up, it is not that far from challenging its intermediate term trading range.  If that gets reset, there is not much resistance for another 40% to the upside.

            After threatening to challenge its late July lows, the VIX bounced hard, closing above both moving averages and the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  In the process, it made a second lower high.  It now appears to have developed a pennant formation marked by the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of the aforementioned developing very short term uptrend.  A break of either boundary would provide an indication of future direction.



            ***overnight, August Chinese inflation was ahead of expectations, Irma appears to have been less destructive than many thought and North Korea didn’t fire a missile marking it Founder’s Day.

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   This Week’s Data


            If employment is so good why are credit card delinquencies rising?



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