Monday, May 1, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P had a good couple of days last week, negating that very short term downtrend in the process.  It appears to be resting after the Monday/Tuesday moonshot---which is quite normal.  Resistance now exists at its former high and support at its moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  I think that the odds of move up outweigh those of a down move.  However, as I have pointed out, in the technical world, those two gaps in last week’s rise ultimately will get filled.  The question, is it near term before a further move up or longer term on the way down after stocks make a new high.

            The long Treasury sold off last week.  Though there was little change in the technicals.  It remains above its 100 day moving average, below its 200 day moving average, in a very short term downtrend, above its 100 day moving average and a short term trading range.  However, (1) it voided an uptrend off the lower boundary of its short term trading range and (2) it seems to be building support at the upper boundary of a four month trading range dating back to November 2016.

            Gold sold off last week but remained technically strong as it held both moving averages and its very short term uptrend. Certainly, it did not perform like its investors are worried about higher interest rates.

            The dollar traded down last week remaining below its 100 day moving average, the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend and back below its 200 day moving average (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  Meanwhile, the spread between the declining very short term downtrend and the rising short term uptrend continues to narrow.

            The VIX got hammered last week, destroying its very short term uptrend and reverting to resistance in both of its moving averages.  But it ended the week near very strong support---the lower boundaries of its short and intermediate term trading ranges.  Further the lower boundary of its long term trading range is just below those two boundaries.  Finally, observe the giant gap down last Monday----again those gaps get filled.



            ***overnight, April Chinese new orders for manufacturing and services fell to a six month low.

                        Congress reaches agreement to fund government through September (medium):

       Investing for Survival
            Thoughts on the market from Peter Lynch.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declares $0.46/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

V.F. (NYSE:VFC) declares $0.42/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.


   This Week’s Data

            March personal income rose 0.2% versus expectations of up 0.3%; personal spending was flat versus estimates of +0.1%; the PCE price index was -0.2% versus forecasts of -0.1%.


            Update on oil (medium):

            And its impact on inflation (medium):



  International War Against Radical Islam

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