Monday, March 20, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P continues its stellar performance.  It is in uptrends across all timeframes and is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  Until something changes in this picture, it seems reasonable to assume that the S&P will challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.

            The long Treasury rebounded last week, but off of a depressed level.  It is still only slightly above the lower boundary of its short term trading range, while well below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within a very short term downtrend.  The burden of proof is on those expecting lower rates.

            GLD is again trying to transform what has been a consistently ugly chart over the last seven months.  Last week, it managed to rally above its 100 day moving average (now support); but still remains in a short term downtrend and below its 200 day moving average,

            Last week’s performance of the dollar was the reverse of TLT, as you might expect (lower rates = lower dollar).  However, its chart is a bit more ambiguous.   By that I mean that while it finished above its 200 day moving average and within a short term uptrend it ended below its 100 day moving average which reverts to resistance.

            The VIX tried twice last week to push below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  While it was able to do so intraday, it wasn’t successful on a closing basis.  That leaves open the question as to whether the period of complacency is ending.



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   This Week’s Data

            The February Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at .34 versus January’s reading of -.02.


            ***overnight, Greece will likely miss the deadline for achieving results that would provide for receiving bail out funds’ UK PM May triggered Brexit; the G20 failed to renew pledge to resist all forms of protectionism.



  International War Against Radical Islam

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