Monday, March 6, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            There is nothing to add to my prior comments.  Stock prices are heading up and nothing suggests that the S&P won’t challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (2561). 

The most un-fun bubble ever (short):

            The long Treasury rallied enough on Friday to put it back on the lower boundary of the developing pennant formation.  Successfully challenging either of the boundaries of this pattern would suggest additional price movement in the direction of the break.  A move down would mean higher interest rates.  TLT remained below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a very short term downtrend---all of which exert a downward price bias on TLT.

            GLD’s chart took a turn for the worse last week.  Its very short term uptrend was negated and it remained below its 200 day moving average and in a short term downtrend.  It is holding above its 100 day moving average, keeping alive the hope that its pin action could improve.

            The dollar has moved up enough to set a very short term uptrend, which supports the weight being provided by its 100 and 200 day moving averages and its short term uptrend.

            Given the Market’s Wednesday moonshot, it is not surprising to see the VIX (10.9) suffer some whackage.  It is now well below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, in a short term downtrend and is again approaching the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (10.3)---a level that indicates significant complacency.



            A bit long but this is a great must read strategy piece from Citi.

       Investing for Survival
            The outlook for medicare and social security.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data


            More on the growing pension insolvency problem (medium):

            China cuts economic growth forecast (medium)



Quote of the day (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam

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