As you can see, the S&P traded in a pretty tight range last week. After a solid rally, this kind of sideways action is generally viewed quite positively---a sign that the bulls are in control and more upside is likely to occur. I can’t argue with that; but the much higher volatility in the same time period in the VIX, TLT, GLD, oil and the dollar makes me think that something is going on that those markets are responding to but the stock market is not.
The long Treasury recovered nicely last week from the recent sell off. Not that the selloff was the alarming. Throughout the whole process, TLT didn’t even get close to the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, much less the short, intermediate and long term uptrends. Nonetheless, it still needs to take out that final Fibonacci level at the top of the chart to prevent it from making a lower high; and its acting like it is going to.
GLD was up 1% on Friday, leaving it above its 100 day moving average and in very short term, short term and intermediate term uptrends.
The VIX plunged on Friday, taking it back below the lower boundary of the former short term trading range. As you know I suspended a directional call on the VIX last week as it see sawed above and below that short term trading range’s lower boundary. I am still not making that call; although Friday’s move was pretty decisive.
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