Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P remains stuck in a very tight trading range. The bad news is that it can’t generate enough momentum to push through the upper boundary of its short term trading range. The good news is that the bears keep trying to push it down, but just can’t get the job done. I would have thought that Friday’s lousy nonfarm payroll report would have upset the bull’s apple cart. But they hung in there.
The long Treasury soared on Friday on the assumption that the poor jobless number takes a June and perhaps a July Fed rate hike off the table. As you can see, it destroyed the very short term downtrend and is now poised to challenge the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range.
GLD also spiked on the prospect of no Fed interest rate hike. Clearly the risk of trading down through the 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term trading range has been negated, at least, for the moment.
The VIX is back near the lower boundary of its short term trading range, which it has bounced off of four times. If it breaks this boundary, it would be good news for stocks. In addition, the 100 day moving average is now heading down; also a potential plus for stocks.
Two Fed bank chiefs spoke over the weekend and reiterated the likelihood of a rate increase. Yellen speaks this afternoon.
April German industrial orders came in below expectations.
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This Week’s Data
The dollar at war with itself (medium/long):
This can’t be good for the muni bond market (medium):
Update on big four economic indicators (medium):
International War against Radical Islam
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