Tuesday, April 19, 2016

The Morning Call--No bad news

The Morning Call


The Market

The indices (DJIA 18004, S&P 2094) had a great Monday, albeit on dismal volume.  Breadth improved; and the VIX got whacked---but is now back at levels that suggest a bottom (top in stocks) is near.

The Dow closed [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term uptrend {17392-18350}, [c] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5471-19343}.

Dow nearing a ‘golden cross’ (short):

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above  its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] back above the upper boundary of its short term trading range {1867-2081}; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, the short term trend will reset to up, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {1867-2134} and [e] in a long term uptrend {800-2161}. 

The long Treasury fell, but closed within a very short term uptrend, a short term uptrend, above its 100 day moving average and above a Fibonacci support level. 

GLD also declined, ending within a short term uptrend, above its 100 day moving average and a key Fibonacci support level.   However, it remains in a very short term downtrend.

Bottom line: the Averages appear to be regaining upside momentum despite the lack of volume and even a modicum of good news.  My major technical takeaways remain: (1) stocks are at a level of heavy congestion and so, yesterday’s pin action notwithstanding, it makes sense that the momentum will become a bit more labored and (2) my assumption is that the Averages will challenge their all-time highs.



            There was one minor US datapoint released yesterday---homebuilder confidence which was below estimates.  This was the first day of what will be a very slow week, stat-wise; and much of that data will housing focused.

            ***overnight, April German investor confidence rose and rumors flew that Japan would make further easing moves in the wake of last weekend’s disastrous earthquakes.

            The other noteworthy news item included the failure of the Doha meeting to reach an agreement on a freeze in oil production and a continuation of US groveling to the Saudi’s.

Bottom line: the universal sentiment on the Street last Friday was that a Doha failure would spark a sell off.  Apparently, no one was listening or gave a s**t.  I am not being critical of Wall Street pundits, I am pointing out the strength of the bullish sentiment.  It doesn’t matter whether the news is good or bad, stocks seem to want to go up. 

To date, decelerating economic growth, poor corporate revenue and earnings growth, stretched equity valuations have counted for nothing.  The only thing that appears material is how much further QE can be pushed by the global central bankers---despite its dismal record of success and despite the massive misallocation and pricing of assets.  

Can it continue?  Sure.  As the saying goes ‘the Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’.   That said, I believe it just as irrational to be fully or near fully invested in the current economic/valuation environment on the proposition that you will be smart enough to protect your portfolio before the mean reversion process begins in earnest. 

Given stock prices’ proximity to their highs, I believe that it is an excellent opportunity to sell a portion of any stock that is at or near its all-time high.

            The great US economic growth myth (medium):


       Investing for Survival
            What stock buybacks tell us about the market.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): Q1 EPS of $1.68 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $17.48B (+0.6% Y/Y) misses by $20M

Philip Morris (NYSE:PM): Q1 EPS of $0.98 misses by $0.13.
Revenue of $6.08B (-8.2% Y/Y) misses by $280M.


   This Week’s Data

            The April National Homebuilders confidence index was reported at 58.0 versus expectations of 59.0.

            March housing starts fell 8.7% versus estimates of a 1% decline.


            Lending, housing and GDP growth (short):

            A great piece on the inequality of wealth (short):

            A somewhat different take on the American standard of living (short):

            Update on US and global debt growth (medium and a must read):

                Wells Fargo rewarded with primary dealer status one a month after admitting to defrauding the government (medium):




            The latest on the third Greek bailout (medium):

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

No comments:

Post a Comment