Monday, April 25, 2016

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P continues to perform well.  It has busted through two of the prior lower highs (the orange 3 and 4) and reset to a short term uptrend.  You can see the congestion (the red 1,2,3 and the orange 1,2) that I have mentioned.  Nevertheless, the momentum remains to the upside and it seems likely that the former all-time high will be challenged.

            Update on best Market indicator (short):

            Once again, I included a chart of the dollar.  You can see that it looks to have made a double bottom.  If the inverse correlation that has existed with the Averages since January continues, this could be a negative for stocks.

            The long Treasury had a rocky week.  It traded through the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend and a key Fibonacci level.  It is now approaching a prior short term low.  Failure to hold above it would suggest either rising risk of inflation (see GLD) or a less accommodative Fed (is that possible?).

            After a great run, GLD has run into some, at least, minor headwinds.  One day after voiding a very short term downtrend, it traded back below the upper boundary.  On the other hand, it held above a key Fibonacci level.  If that is taken out, then the lower boundary of its short term uptrend becomes a target.

            The VIX continues to hover around the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  Any bounce off that level will likely lead to additions to the Aggressive Growth Portfolios holding of VXX.


            ***overnight, the April German business climate index fell, China’s government debt hit 237% of GDP and the Bank of Japan revealed that it was among the top ten shareholders of 90% of Japanese companies (that has to end well).

       The latest from Jeff Gundlach (medium):

       Investing for Survival
            Wisdom from Stanley Druckenmiller.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data




  International War Against Radical Islam

            More on the Saudi link to 9/11 (three minute video):

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