Monday, February 1, 2016

Monday Morning Chatology

The Morning Call


The Market

            Friday, the S&P busted out of its week long trading range, topping the 1928 Fibonacci retracement level and as well as the lower boundary of its short term downtrend.
So there was finally some follow through. As you can see, there is very little resistance between its current price and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and its 100 day moving average which are at roughly the same level.  Until proven otherwise, the assumption is that those resistance points will be tested.

            The long Treasury had a good week benefitting from the softening global economy (less borrowing) and currency devaluations (the dollar safe haven).  It is clearly nearing the upper boundary of its short term trading range.  If it breaks above this level, it would signify that bond investors are betting more heavily on recession and/or global economic turmoil spawned by intensifying competitive devaluations.

            GLD has had a decent month in the sense that (1) it has been in a very short term uptrend and (2) it has successfully challenged its 100 day moving average, which reverted from resistance to support.  That said, it remains in short, intermediate and long term downtrends, which is clearly not a plus.

            Not surprisingly, the VIX was off last week as stocks pulled out of their steep decline and traded in a range.  It remains above its 100 day moving average though, as you can see, the MA is trending down, weakening its strength as support.


            Great article on Japan’s move to negative interest rates (medium and today’s must read):

       Investing for Survival
            Why investors are so surprised by surprises:

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data

            December personal income rose 0.3%, in line; personal spending was flat versus expectations of +0.1%; the PCE deflator was -0.1% versus estimates of being flat.

            ***overnight, January Chinese manufacturing and services PMI fell; January South Korean exports dropped 18.5% while imports declined 20.0%.


            More on student loans (short):

            Goldman on oil prices (medium):



This is absolutely hilarious---Trump with a British accent (2 minute video):

Hillary’s troubles grow (medium):

Washington and Wall Street (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

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