The Morning Call
2/1/16
The
Market
Technical
Friday,
the S&P busted out of its week long trading range, topping the 1928
Fibonacci retracement level and as well as the lower boundary of its short term downtrend.
So there was finally some follow
through. As you can see, there is very little resistance between its current
price and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and its 100 day moving
average which are at roughly the same level.
Until proven otherwise, the assumption is that those resistance points
will be tested.
The
long Treasury had a good week benefitting from the softening global economy
(less borrowing) and currency devaluations (the dollar safe haven). It is clearly nearing the upper boundary of
its short term trading range. If it
breaks above this level, it would signify that bond investors are betting more
heavily on recession and/or global economic turmoil spawned by intensifying
competitive devaluations.
GLD
has had a decent month in the sense that (1) it has been in a very short term
uptrend and (2) it has successfully challenged its 100 day moving average,
which reverted from resistance to support.
That said, it remains in short, intermediate and long term downtrends,
which is clearly not a plus.
Not
surprisingly, the VIX was off last week as stocks pulled out of their steep
decline and traded in a range. It
remains above its 100 day moving average though, as you can see, the MA is
trending down, weakening its strength as support.
Fundamental
Great
article on Japan’s move to negative interest rates (medium and today’s must
read):
Investing for Survival
Why
investors are so surprised by surprises:
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
December
personal income rose 0.3%, in line; personal spending was flat versus
expectations of +0.1%; the PCE deflator was -0.1% versus estimates of being
flat.
***overnight,
January Chinese manufacturing and services PMI fell; January South Korean
exports dropped 18.5% while imports declined 20.0%.
Other
More
on student loans (short):
Goldman
on oil prices (medium):
Politics
Domestic
This is absolutely
hilarious---Trump with a British accent (2 minute video):
Hillary’s
troubles grow (medium):
Washington and
Wall Street (medium):
International War Against Radical
Islam
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