The Morning Call
2/29/16
The
Market
Technical
Last
week, I noted how confusing the pin action in stocks was. Friday didn’t change a thing. Intraday, the S&P touched the upper
boundary of its short term downtrend and retreated. It also closed right on the level of the last
lower high and the upper boundary of the very short term trading range
(1812-1948) that I pointed to last week---raising the question as to whether
Thursday’s higher high was a head fake.
Given the Market’s recent elevated level of schizophrenia, I am not
going to venture an opinion. I am still
waiting for some meaningful follow through.
The
long Treasury stumbled a bit last week, finishing Friday below the lower
boundary of its very short term uptrend.
A close there today will confirm the break. On a longer term basis, TLT remains well
above its 100 day moving average and within its short term uptrend.
GLD
seems to be resting after its moon shot, but is still well within very short
term and short term uptrends and above its rising 100 day moving average.
The
VIX rebounded on Friday, managing to recoup the break of its 100 day moving
average on Thursday. However, it
remained slightly below the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend. Under the rules of our price and distance
discipline, this represents a confirmation of the break. However, note the three day break in late
December. Bottom line, I think we need a
bit more data before assuming the VIX is becoming a positive read for stocks.
Fundamental
G20
did nothing (medium):
***and
just to put a fine point on it, Japanese PM Abe said that the government would
not delay the imposition of a 10% sales tax---how’s that for fiscal stimulus?
In
other news, EU February CPI was reported at -0.2%, ex food and energy -0.7%;
and China eased reserve requirements, again.
Peak
stupidity (medium and a must read):
Emerging
market stocks are cheap (short):
Investing for Survival
Be
a proactive investor.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
More
on central bank insanity (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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