Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

8/10/15

The Market

           

    Technical

The S&P finished last week back below [a] its 100 day moving average; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert from support to resistance and [b] the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close today, it will re-set to a short term trading range.  For the moment, it remains in uptrends across all timeframes (2097-3076, 1882-2648, 797-2145). 

             The Dow which is in much worse shape, ended [a] below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, both of which represent resistance, [b] below the lower boundary of a recently re-set short term trading range; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, the short term trend will re-set to down, [c] in an intermediate term trading range and [d] in a long term uptrend.

            The long Treasury was up strong on Friday.  It closed [a] above its 100 day moving average for the second day; if it ends there today, it will revert from resistance to support, [b] above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the second day; if it remains there through the close today, the short term trend will re-set to a trading range and [c] within a very short term uptrend.  

I noted on Friday that the long Treasury is see sawing through a crucial junction---the bond guys battling over whether the Fed will hike or not and/or whether the global economic growth outlook is dimming.  At the close Friday, the no rate hike/slowing global growth crowd was winning.

GLD’s chart remains a mess, closing below its 100 day moving average and in downtrends across all timeframes.

The VIX fell on Friday, finishing below its 100 day moving average and remaining within a short term trading range, an intermediate term downtrend and a long term trading range.

    Fundamental

   

            ***overnight, (1) Greece and Troika appear near to an agreement on financial reforms that will grant Greece a E86 billion bailout, (2) July Chinese exports fell 8.3% while imports were down 8.1% and (3) Japanese consumer sentiment was the lowest in six months.

            David Stockman on central bank money creation (8 minute video):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/tops-david-stockman-warns-epochal-deflation

          Investing for Survival

            Misconceptions about risk management (short):

            http://www.pragcap.com/three-misconceptions-about-risk-management

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            The rising problem with state and municipal debt (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/here-comes-next-crisis-nobody-saw-coming

            More on student loans (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/why-obamas-favorite-student-debt-relief-program-will-cost-taxpayers-100-billion

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam