Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P bounced hard on Wednesday closing back above its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend. It then reversed, failing to confirm the break of the very short term downtrend; but still remains above the 100 day moving average. So very short term the momentum remains to the downside though certainly all the longer term trends continue in uptrends.
More on technical factors (medium):
The long Treasury traded all the way down to the lower boundary of its short term downtrend and bounced last week; it also remains well within its very short term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average. Momentum is clearly down (up) in prices (yields).
What do you say a chart of random price moves?
Ask Texas (medium):
VIX is another chart of a lot of price directionless price movement. As long as it remains at lower price levels, that is a plus for stock prices.
Last week in a nutshell:
(1) the economic news was upbeat for the second week in a row and third time in twenty weeks,
(2) the eurocrats continued their game of chicken.
Overnight, talks break off but notice the give in the Troika’s position on pensions (medium):
(3) and in demonstration that of the complete dysfunctionality of our ruling class, they failed to Asian trade pact, one of the very few Obama initiatives that would have actually helped the economy.
Divergences in value and market internals (medium):
More on valuation: update on the Q ratio (short):
The futility of our global monetary experiment (medium and today’s must read):
Investing for Survival
12 things I learned from David Tepper: #7
There is a time to reap and a time to sow. There is also a time to be defensive and not lose money. Sometimes almost all potential investments are properly put in the “too hard” pile. At times like this, the best thing you can do is preserve what you already have. Investing is a probabilistic activity. If you don’t have an investing thesis that is the output of a sound investing process which is net present value positive, then don’t invest. It’s that simple. Having a “too hard” pile is such a huge advantage in life.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
The June NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.98 versus expectations of +5.90.
Household net worth and debt. The problem with this analysis is that net worth is being driven by asset pricing resulting from a misallocation of capital and the debt ‘bubble’ has little to do with household debt. (medium):
When our current best is worse that our prior worst (short):
Arrests and crimes in Baltimore (short):
Quote of the day (short):
More on student loans (medium):
International War Against Radical Islam