Monday, March 16, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Monday Morning Chartology      

            The S&P remains within uptrends across all timeframes.  On a very short term basis, it is right on the lower boundary of (1) a very short term uptrend (2) which also happens to be part of a developing pennant formation.  A break below this level would suggest more downside.  Also note that it is right on its 100 day moving average (wiggly red line).  I have marked the prior occasions that the S&P has been at this support level over the last two years and bounced---so it clearly offers strong support.  Finally, we have had two big up days of late; but both were in the context of a broader downtrend.  So by themselves, they have little meaning.  We need a longer stretch of calm before assuming this down leg has run its course.

            The long Treasury is holding within its short term trading range and its intermediate and long term uptrends.  However, with volatility has been so high of late, the odds of the short term trading range remaining intact are not that great.

            Another attempt at a bottom for GLD.  Notice all the resistance levels that it has to overcome before, even if you think a reversal is probable.  Of course, it has done just that twice before, only to beat another retreat.

            More of the same directionless movement.

            Triple witching options week (short):

            Why the dollar is soaring (medium):

            The ECB is distorting money markets (medium):

             More on valuation (medium):
            Majority of Germans believe Greece should exit EU (medium):

            Austrian bank collapse claims its first victim (medium):

            ***overnight, Chinese GDP grew at the slowest rate in 20 years; Premier says government prepared to take action.

      Investing for Survival 

            Five lessons learned from the recent ETF conference (medium):

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data

            Last week was the seventh week in a row for poor economic data: negative: weekly retail sales, February retail sales, small business optimism index, wholesale sales, weekly mortgage applications, consumer sentiment and February PPI; positive: weekly purchase applications and weekly jobless claims.  While there was not a lot of stats from overseas, what we got was dominated by a series of week numbers out of China.

            The March NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 6.9 versus expectations of 7.0.


            Government admits it may have problems guaranteeing insolvent pension plans (medium):

            Greece passes law to plunder pension plans (medium):

            Latest figures on household net worth (short):



Quote of the day (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam

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