Monday Morning Chartology
While the S&P has reset to a short term trading range and successfully challenged its 100 day moving average, reverting to resistance, there has been no real follow through to the downside. As I have been repeating for the last month, stocks appear to be stuck in a very tight range probably a result of the lack of clarity on a number of fundamental issues.
TLT spent the week in a very narrow range (much like stocks and gold). On the positive side, it has remained well within uptrends across all major timeframes and it held above a key Fibonacci level. The bad news is that it has pushed through its 100 day moving average with authority and is developing a very short term downtrend. At the moment, the chart is sound (suggesting higher prices) though it is developing some warts.
You can see that the dollar is on a sizz. That is not good for gold, the US trade balance or US based companies with a large international exposures.
Even though GLD has busted to the downside through its 100 day moving average and has reset to a short term downtrend, it has held above a key Fibonacci level. That is a start; but just only. The pin action needs to improve a lot more before I start getting enthusiastic about GLD.
The VIX got pummeled last week, including being down on down Market days. It is now below its 100 day moving average (resistance) and in a short term downtrend. However, it is also in a very short term uptrend which has been set by five higher lows---a good sign of strength at lower levels. As you can see, the VIX is again nearing that trend line. If it holds, that would be a sign that stocks are about as good as they are going to get.
Goldman cuts S&P earnings outlook (medium):
Investing for Survival
Ten purchases that are worth the money.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Revenue of $4.59B (-2.8% Y/Y) .
Revenue of $3.49B (-1.1% Y/Y)
Revenue of $40.89B (+4.6% Y/Y)
This Week’s Data
The September Chicago national activity index came in at -.14; August was revised from -.55 to -.72.
***overnight, the October EU Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were all better than expected as was the Japanese October manufacturing PMI; October Japanese exports fell.
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.