The Morning Call
11/19/14
The Market
Technical
The indices
(DJIA 17687, S&P 2051) rallied yesterday.
Both closed within uptrends across all timeframes: short term
(16053-18810, 1846-2212), intermediate term (16053-20153, 1697-2413) and long
term (5159-18521, 783-2062). They are
also finished above their 50 day moving averages.
Volume picked
up; breadth was improved but much less than suggested by the pin action. The
VIX declined fractionally. Like breadth,
its move was a lot less than I would have thought. It ended within a short term uptrend, an
intermediate term downtrend and right on its 50 day moving average.
And:
The long
Treasury rose, closing within a very short term trading range, a short term
uptrend, an intermediate term trading range and above its 50 day moving
average.
GLD was up. While it finished within short, intermediate
and long term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average, it ended above
the lower boundary of its former long term trading range. As I noted previously, if it can hold above
this level, it could mark the end of GLD’s decline. Still too soon to make a bet.
Bottom line:
after a classic sideways consolidation from an extreme overbought condition,
stocks resumed their advance yesterday. It certainly suggests more strength to
the upside. On the other hand, breadth
is not good, the VIX has been stronger than expected (a negative for stocks)
and the S&P is drawing ever closer to the upper boundary of its long term
uptrend (historically a tough if not impossible resistance level to
overcome). Even the most aggressive
trader should be careful until we know how the S&P handles the long term
trend’s upper boundary.
Fundamental
Headlines
US
economic data yesterday was mixed: the headline PPI number was up more than
expected, while the figure ex food and energy was in line; weekly retail sales
were mixed; and the NAHB homebuilders confidence index was stronger than
estimates. None of these are all that
important.
Overseas,
Abe officially delayed the second tax increase, dissolved parliament and called
for elections and proposed new fiscal spending measures---hoping that fiscal
largess will buy him some votes in the political equivalent of a ‘last stand’
(medium):
And:
On
the political front, the senate drove to hoop on the Keystone Pipeline
legislation yesterday and failed to score.
Of course, it is really a moot point because the next senate will
undoubtedly pass it in January/February 2015.
The question is Obama. If He
holds to His ideological position, it will likely get vetoed. Then the question is can that be overridden?
Bottom line:
stocks resumed their advance, driven by QEInfinity Japanese style, rising corporate
profits, a seasonally positive emotional bias and a strong dollar. Speaking of which, I haven’t mentioned the
dollar of late. But it is currently advancing
basically because the US is the cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry and hence
dollar denominated assets are seen as a safe alternative in an economically and
geopolitically uncertain world. That
seems to be helping all dollar denominated assets---bonds, stocks and real
estate; and all other things being equal, should continue to do so.
However, the
point that I repeatedly make is that even under favorable assumptions of
continuing low interest rates and growth in the US economy and corporate
profits, stocks are still overvalued. In
other words, I am not talking a doomsday economic/geopolitical scenario; I am
saying that even with a positive outlook (QE, rising earnings, the holiday
spirit and a strengthening dollar) equities are at historically high
valuations.
So what prompts
a resolution of this conflict? It is almost always a negative exogenous event
that triggers price mean reversion. By
definition, I have no idea what or when that could happen. But given the magnitude of the downside when,
as and if it does occur, it seems reasonable to me that portfolio protection
makes sense.
I
can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy
today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that
has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to
trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.
Bear
in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills. Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and
their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their
Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite
minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
The
S&P and earnings (short):
Subscriber Alert
I
mentioned in the last Closing Bell that I intended to tighten up the quality
criteria standards that must be met by companies for inclusion in our
Universe. As a first move as part of
that analysis, today the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell Marathon Oil (MRO)
which doesn’t meet our new, slightly tougher standards. However, because our Portfolios own enough
cash, the proceeds will be reinvested in Chevron (CVX).
For
similar reasons, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will Sell Reliance Steel (RS)
with the proceeds reinvested in Cummins (CMI).
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