The Morning Call--Technological disruptions

 

The Morning Call

 

9/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-go-nowhere-ahead-government-shutdown-gold-soars-record

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The July Case Shiller home price index was down 0.3% versus projections of -0.1%.

 

                          August pending home sales were up 4.0% versus estimates of +1.7%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/pending-home-sales-jump-august-2025

 

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -8,7 versus predictions of -7.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-september-2025

 

                                                  Dallas Fed respondents.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dallas-fed-respondents-turn-apocalyptic-amid-trump-push-hammer-oil-prices

 

 

                        International

 

Q2 UK GDP growth was +0.3%, in line; Q2 business investment fell 1.1% versus -4.0%.

 

August Japanese retail sales declined 1.1% versus forecasts of +1.0%; August (preliminary) industrial production was down 1.2% versus +0.8%; August YoY housing starts were down 9.8% versus -6.0%; August YoY construction orders were up 38.9% (?) versus -3.0%.

 

August German retail sales fell 0.2% versus expectations of +0.9%; the September unemployment rate 6.3%, in line; the September CPI was up 0.2% versus 0.0%.

 

The September Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 versus consensus of 49.9; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus 50.7; the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          An in depth look at last week’s corporate profits report.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/27/corporate-profits-in-nonfinancial-industries-plunge-by-most-ever-in-amid-massive-downward-revisions/

 

                          RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                                   We are witnessing the complete breakdown of the liberal economic order.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-we-are-witnessing-complete-breakdown-liberal-economic-order

 

                Overnight News

 

The US government is set for a shutdown tomorrow, JD Vance said, seeking to pin the blame on Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he wouldn’t support a seven- or ten-day stopgap funding bill. The impasse has raised concerns that data releases, including Friday’s jobs report, may be delayed.

 

Trump said the tariff on upholstered furniture will start at 25% and rise to 30% on Jan 1, with kitchen cabinets/bathroom vanities starting at 25% before rising to 50% (although imports from the EU and Japan will be capped at 15%, with the UK ceiling 10%).

 

Trump’s lumber/timber tariff details aren’t as bad as feared (the rate is only 10%, and payers of that tariff won’t be subject to the “reciprocal” tax

 

                Monetary Policy

 

              A brief history of the Fed and a proposal to fix its many mistakes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/29/thoughts_on_how_to_fix_an_ailing_federal_reserve_1137674.html

 

                  Where is the neutral rate of interest?

              DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

              The central issues impacting a potential government shutdown.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/will-trumps-last-ditch-talks-to-avoid-government-shutdown-succeed/

               

            Tariffs

 

              A positive case for some tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/29/president_trumps_tariffs_are_rebuilding_the_uss_industrial_base_1137534.html

 

              But that is meaningless if this is an accurate description of Trump’s dealings.

              https://dekleptocracy.substack.com/p/trumps-shell-game-threatens-american?r=18lw6l

           

              The Lerner Symmetry.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/09/lerner-symmetry-bites.html

 

              Small businesses wither under Trump tariffs.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/business/trump-tariffs-small-businesses.html

 

              What does the rise in gold prices means.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/weekly-market-pulse-the-most-interesting-chart-in-the-world?post=525464

 

     Investing

 

            AI’s new chokepoint.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/AIs-new-chokepoint/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP817&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            An interesting approach to valuations.

            https://www.tker.co/p/forward-realized-cape-ratio-valuation

 

            How bear markets work.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/how-bear-markets-work/

 

            What investors need to know about a steepening yield curve.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-investors-need-know-about-steepening-yield-curve

 

            Technological disruptions.

             https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/29/thoughts-disruptive

 

            Don’t let your ‘fun money’ trading account get too big.

            https://novelinvestor.com/fred-schwed-jr-speculator-hero-worship/

 

            Gold revaluation imminent?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-revaluation-imminent-us-treasury-hoard-tops-1-trillion-first-time

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The strongest evidence of a universe before the Big Bang.

            https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/evidence-universe-before-big-bang/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Monday Morning Chartology---Year end melt up?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/29/25

 

The Market

 

The S&P had another disappointinig week, breaking the uptrend off its April low. Recall that it violated that uptrend three weeks ago, then re-established it the following week. This is not a big deal. It just means that (at least temporarily) the rate of ascent of the current uptrend is slowing. So, with the S&P (1) above all three DMAs and (2) in uptrends across all timeframes, it is way too soon to get negative.

 

That said, the upper boundary of its short term uptrend looms ever closer; and with valuations at near historic highs (and getting higher), I remain of the opinion that this is a market to trade not invest in long term. If you do, be sure to have close in stops.

 

Year-end melt up?

Is it too early to start talking about a year-end melt-up? | ZeroHedge

 

 

 

 

The bond market continue to be somewhat less than enthusiastic about the prospects for lower rates. While it remains above all three DMAs (1) they are very tightly bunched so it would not take much to push TLT below all three and (2) it is in downtrends across all timeframes. I raised the question two weeks ago as to whether we were witnessing a major change in direction. I think that question still stands.

 

 

 

 

Gold continued its rally, although the (lack of) recessionary signals and (lack of) inflation data raises doubts in my mind about its sustainability. Still it remains above all DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. So, I will continue to hold my GDX (remember it is a trade) until there is any sign of a rollover.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-magnet-etfs-roar-officials-keep-buying

 

 

 

The dollar rallied last week, finishing above both its 50 and 100 DMAs---both of which appear to be turning up. Could this be the end of the dollar’s decline? As always follow through is the key. Pending that follow through, I remain hard pressed to think that the worst is over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/now-time-buy-dollar

 

 

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            Stocks Surge As Dip-Buyers Emerge, Silver Soars To 11 Year High | ZeroHedge

 

            Ten charts for Monday morning.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-charts-you-need-know-monday-morning

 

            Friday in the technical stats.

            Stock Market Momentum & Daily Stock Activity - Barchart.com

            Stock Market Sectors & Stock Sector Finder - Barchart.com

            Today's New Stocks Trading Signals & Recommendations - Barchart.com

 

            The wall of worry.

            The Wall Of Worry: Melt-Up Now, Capital Destruction Later? | ZeroHedge

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

Last week’s stats were overwhelmingly upbeat as were the primary indicators (five plus, three neutral---one of which was an inflation datapoint). Overseas, the data was also very upbeat including the price data (one plus).

 

This was the second week in a row of positive numbers. But given the recent the weekly data seesawing between positive and negative, I am sticking with my ‘muddle through’ forecast.

 

On the other hand, the inflation numbers were again not reflective of a worsening in trend. This is the third week in a row of positive markers. Another couple of weeks in the upbeat trend and I will alter my outlook.

 

The point worth commenting from last week was the very strength of the stats, especially the primary indicators. They were certainly pointing to an economy that was stronger than one of ‘muddling through.’  Of course, that’s one week of data. So it is too soon to revise my forecast.

 

A warning from Lance Roberts.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/slowdown-signals-are-leading-indicators-flashing-red?post=525003

 

Another warning, but milder.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-personal-income-and-spending.html

 

What is somewaht surprising to me is that growth numbers could be so good at the same time as the inflation data is improving. Not that in normal circumstances that would be that unusual. But with the economy seemingly gaining strength at a time that it is near full capacity while the Fed is easing and the government is spending like a drunken sailor, it is at least confusing to me.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-shows-no-sign-of-runaway-tariff-costs-as-savings-rate-slides?post=525014

 

But stats are what they are, and I have to respect them. As I noted above, I am on watch for amending my forecast. Although longer term, I remain skeptical that current monetary/fiscal policies will not prove inflationary.

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 106.1 versus forecasts of 105.9.

 

The September EU economic sentiment index was 95.5 versus projections of 95.1; the industrial sentiment index was -10.3 versus -10.0; the services sentiment index was 3.6 versus 3.8; the consumer confidence index was -14.9, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Q2 per capita GDP.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/gdp-per-capita-q2-2025-third-estimate

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The courts strike a blow against the administrative state.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/26/the_courts_strike_a_blow_against_the_administrative_state_1137281.html

 

              The cost of removing illegal immigrants from the US.

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-removing-illegal-immigrants

 

            Tariffs

 

              The safety of the nation depends on upholstered furniture.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/the-safety-of-the-nation-depends-on-upholstered-furniture-and-bathroom-vanities

 

     Investing

 

            2025 Q2 S&P earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q2-friday-sep-26?post=525007

 

            The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-buckle-if-disorderly-unwind-short-dollar-trade

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The rising tide of government interest rate costs

 

The Morning Call

 

9/26/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-breakouts-bruised-bets-and-bubbles

 

            More charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/momentum-massacre-stocks-slammed-bonds-battered-crypto-crashes-silver-soars-and-gold

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-mondays-bitcoin-flash-crash-was-first-sign-we-are-headed-meltup

 

            Bitcoin and ethereum nearing critical technical levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/soggy-btc-nearing-200-day-should-market-listen

 

    Fundamental

 

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August existing home sales fell 0.2%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/existing-home-sales-inch-lower-in-august

 

August personal income was up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.3%; August personal spending was up 0.6% versus +0.3%.

 

                          August PCE was up 0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 4 versus estimates of -5.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese YoY CPI rose 2.5% versus expectations of +2.9%; YoY core CPI was also up 2.5% also versus +2.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                          August new home sales a statistical fluke?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-2025-new-home-sales-jump-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Update on M2.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/09/a-brief-update-on-m2.html

 

              A goldilocks rate cut?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/weekly-economic-pulse-a-goldilocks-rate-cut?post=524807

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The rising tide of government interest rate costs. (in the article the authors refer   to WAM: that means weighted average maturity)

               https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/09/10/15a0d872-7543-4d1e-8074-cc3b7cd0b9cf.pdf

 

 

            Recession

 

              The recession probability is declining.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/recession-probability-declining/

 

              What slowdown?

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/25/what-slowdown-q2-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-the-hot-zone-of-3-8-on-stronger-consumer-spending-private-fixed-investment/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Europe warns Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gold-oil-jump-after-europe-privately-warned-russia-its-ready-shoot-down-its-jets

 

     Investing

 

            The changing investment environment.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5517849-populism-protectionism-global-economy/

 

            The art of doing less.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/23/the-art-of-doing-less/

 

            The Market’s performance after a Fed rate cut.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-now-what.html

 

            Not really like 1929.

            Is This Like 1929? Not Really - Carson Group

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/25/singularity-and-buzzard

 

            High valuations: a warning or a new normal?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-high-valuation-for-us-stocks-a-warning-or-the-new-normal/

 

            The case for why stocks are not priced for perfection.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-markets-are-not-priced-perfection-deutsche-bank

 

            Gold’s value is constant and unchanging.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-case-for-gold-has-nothing-to-do-with-its-price?post=524603

 

            RIP to safe havens.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2ad561fc-03f4-47b5-8537-7e58355d16d2

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.