The Morning Call---The rising tide of government interest rate costs

 

The Morning Call

 

9/26/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-breakouts-bruised-bets-and-bubbles

 

            More charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/momentum-massacre-stocks-slammed-bonds-battered-crypto-crashes-silver-soars-and-gold

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-mondays-bitcoin-flash-crash-was-first-sign-we-are-headed-meltup

 

            Bitcoin and ethereum nearing critical technical levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/soggy-btc-nearing-200-day-should-market-listen

 

    Fundamental

 

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August existing home sales fell 0.2%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/existing-home-sales-inch-lower-in-august

 

August personal income was up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.3%; August personal spending was up 0.6% versus +0.3%.

 

                          August PCE was up 0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 4 versus estimates of -5.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese YoY CPI rose 2.5% versus expectations of +2.9%; YoY core CPI was also up 2.5% also versus +2.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                          August new home sales a statistical fluke?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-2025-new-home-sales-jump-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Update on M2.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/09/a-brief-update-on-m2.html

 

              A goldilocks rate cut?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/weekly-economic-pulse-a-goldilocks-rate-cut?post=524807

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The rising tide of government interest rate costs. (in the article the authors refer   to WAM: that means weighted average maturity)

               https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/09/10/15a0d872-7543-4d1e-8074-cc3b7cd0b9cf.pdf

 

 

            Recession

 

              The recession probability is declining.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/recession-probability-declining/

 

              What slowdown?

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/25/what-slowdown-q2-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-the-hot-zone-of-3-8-on-stronger-consumer-spending-private-fixed-investment/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Europe warns Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gold-oil-jump-after-europe-privately-warned-russia-its-ready-shoot-down-its-jets

 

     Investing

 

            The changing investment environment.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5517849-populism-protectionism-global-economy/

 

            The art of doing less.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/23/the-art-of-doing-less/

 

            The Market’s performance after a Fed rate cut.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-now-what.html

 

            Not really like 1929.

            Is This Like 1929? Not Really - Carson Group

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/25/singularity-and-buzzard

 

            High valuations: a warning or a new normal?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-high-valuation-for-us-stocks-a-warning-or-the-new-normal/

 

            The case for why stocks are not priced for perfection.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-markets-are-not-priced-perfection-deutsche-bank

 

            Gold’s value is constant and unchanging.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-case-for-gold-has-nothing-to-do-with-its-price?post=524603

 

            RIP to safe havens.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2ad561fc-03f4-47b5-8537-7e58355d16d2

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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