Thursday, December 20, 2018

The Morning Call--Powell does the right thing, disappoints Markets


The Morning Call

12/20/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 23323, S&P 2506) traded in a Dow 800+ point range, closing down substantially on the day. They both finished below both moving averages and are now in a pronounced very short term downtrend.   The Dow finished below its February low, while the S&P ended below the lower boundary of its short term trading range (also its February low); if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a downtrend.

Volume was up; breadth was terrible. 

The VIX was down ¼%, once again trading contrary to its normal pattern, suggesting that there is still a lot of investor nervousness.  That said, it nearing expiration; so it may have more to do with the technical issues surrounding that event than investor sentiment.

The long bond was soared 1 ¼ % on huge volume, closing above its 100 DMA (now support), above its 200 DMA (now support) and above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the third day, resetting to a trading range.  It appears that the rise in long term interest rates (decline in bond prices) is over. 

The dollar was up slightly, ending back above the lower boundary of its very short term up trend.  It remains above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend. So the chart continues to be technically strong.

GLD fell ½ % on big volume, but still finished above its 100 DMA.  Intraday, it challenged its 200 DMA but backed off.

 Bottom line: the Averages continue to get more oversold while also continuing to challenge ever lower support levels.  I have said several times that I thought the key to price direction was how the S&P trades around the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  In its third challenge of the support level, it pushed through and closed markedly lower.  Under my time and distance discipline, it must remain there through the close on Friday to confirm the challenge; but given yesterday’s dramatic intraday reversal, it seems likely to happen.  If that occurs, this decline becomes more than just a correction in long term bull market.  Further, as I noted previously, the next major support level for the S&P is ~1800.

            The long bond has reset its short term trend from down to a trading range, suggesting the end of the 2016-2018 rise in rates.
           
            The dollar’s chart remains quite strong and will likely continue to do so as long as dollar funding (liquidity) problems grow.  GLD’s pin action seemed to reflect a stronger dollar and rising short term interest rates.   

            Wednesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were mixed: weekly mortgage and purchase applications fell, the Q3 trade deficit was in line and November existing home sales were well above estimates.

            Of course, the big news of the day was the FOMC’s action and forward guidance following its meeting.  The main points are (1) it raised the Fed Funds’ rate another .25%, (2) it will continue its schedule of balance sheet run off, (3) it lowered the number of likely rate increases in 2019 from three to two and (4) it said that the economy remained strong though it lowered its 2019 GDP growth forecast and acknowledged the difficulties occurring in the global economy.

                ***overnight, Bank of England leaves rates unchanged, largely due to the economic uncertainties surrounding Brexit.

                ***overnight, Bank of Japan leaves rates and QE unchanged.

            My bottom line is that (1) the forward guidance was not as dovish as many hoped [that is obvious in the Market’s reaction], (2) as long as QT is operative, the securities markets are likely to remain under pressure, (3) but the economy will still continue to grow at a below average pace and (4) a reminder that there is nothing in the Fed mandate about stabilizing securities markets.  Granted the Bernanke/Yellen Fed did just that; but that doesn’t mean that it is wise policy or that Powell will continue it.

            Low probability of recession.

            Counterpoints:

            Why the Fed should be cautious about raising rates (and QE).

            No need for an unforced error.

            I like the work this author does.  Indeed, I read all of his articles.  In this one, he poo poos the notion that QE caused stock prices to advance.  For some reason, he leaves out any mention of QE resulting in zero interest rates, the chase for yield, the lowering of credit standards and the ability of large hedge funds and corporations to borrow cheaply to buy stocks.

            Bottom line: the Fed has spoken and it said the QT will remain on schedule.  My thesis remains that the unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet will not be good for securities’ prices.

            I am working on Buy candidates.
      
            The latest from David Tepper.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $858.9M (+7.0% Y/Y) in-line.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.96 beats by $0.11.
Revenue of $10.61B (+7.4% Y/Y) beats by $130M

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            November existing home sales were up 1.9% versus expectations of down 0.5%.

                Weekly jobless claims rose 8,000 versus estimates of +14,000.

            The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.4 versus consensus of 16.5.

     International

    Other

            It appears that the US is exiting Syria---to which I say, thank God.  The US has been wasting money and lives trying to reform a culture that doesn’t want to be reformed.  Now let’s get out of Afghanistan and Iraq.

                

What I am reading today

           

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