Friday, December 7, 2018

The Morning Call---No win


The Morning Call

12/7/18

The Market
         
    Technical

           
The Averages (DJIA 24947, S&P 2695) had a roller coaster day, vacillating almost 800 Dow points intraday before closing down modestly.  They finished below both moving averages; and having set a second lower high last Friday, they made a new lower low.  In addition, they closed last Tuesday’s gap up open---the significance being the upward pull of last Tuesday’s and Friday gaps has been eliminated, leaving the indices free to decline further.  In short, despite the strong intraday rebound, the indices’ charts continued to deteriorate.

Volume rose and breadth was negative.  But neither had any of the characteristics of a selling climax.

The VIX was up 2%, so its chart remains positive (bad for stocks) and actually got more upbeat as its 100 DMA is crossing above its 200 DMA.

The long bond rose another 3/8 %, on volume, finishing above its 100 DMA for a second day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support) and above its 200 DMA for a second day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will revert to support).  Intraday, it challenged the upper boundary of its short term downtrend but failed to close above it.  In sum, its chart is being turned on its head.  Follow through is still needed to confirm the aforementioned challenges.  But clearly, bond investors are embracing the flattening yield curve scenario (recession) enthusiastically…...

Does the yield curve forecast recession?

            Average lead times between inversion and recession.


The dollar was down a penny, but ended in very short term and short term uptrends (right on its lower boundary) as well as above both MA’s. So the chart remains technically strong.  I continue to think that its role as a safety trade is in play. 

GLD traded up two cents: not surprising in face of the big drop in yields.  But its chart is still a bit ugly, suggesting that investors’ enthusiasm for gold as a safety trade remains tepid.

 Bottom line: the intraday bounce notwithstanding, the Averages’ charts grew more negative, technically speaking.  Although given the oversold condition of the Market, some follow through to the upside would not be surprising.  Indeed, we may have seen a bottom near term if seasonal and calendar forces kick in.  On the other hand, it may take even more work to undo the technical negatives, having already failed once.   In other words, I have no idea what happens next.

            The pin action in the long bond continues to point to lower rates.  While that may be good news with respect to Fed policy, it also suggests bad news for the economy (i.e. weaker).  Both the dollar and gold look to be supporting that view.

            Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were tilted to the plus side: positives---the November ADP private payroll report, Q3 unit labor costs, November Markit services PMI and the November ISM nonmanufacturing index; neutral---Q3 productivity; negatives---the October trade deficit, October factory orders (primary indicator). 

            Overseas, October German factory orders were much better than anticipated but industrial production was worse.

            The big news of the day was the arrest of the CFO of a major Chinese tech company for violating sanctions against Iran.  I can’t imagine that the Chinese will not respond, though at this point, they haven’t.  So we have that to look forward to.

            Other factors facing the economy/Market are the budget showdown (now two weeks away), the upcoming Fed meeting at which another rate increase is expected, the results of the OPEC meeting and the Brexit showdown next week.  

            ***overnight at OPEC.

That is a lot for investors to contend with, especially with the demise of the ‘buy the dip’ mentality that has been a major support for equity prices for the last ten years.

            Bottom line: there are number of upcoming events that will influence the economy and likely the Market.  In each of them, there is a reasonable chance of bad news.  The Fed, for instance, is in a no win situation.  If it raises rates, it will likely be perceived as a weight on valuations; if it lowers rates, it suggests that the economy (corporate profits) is weakening.

Ditto, Trump versus the Chinese---if you assume, which I do---that there is no way the Chinese will fold on IP theft without a major fight, if ever.  So he is faced with doing what he did with NAFTA (perhaps getting a few scraps) and continuing to lose face; or he holds firm and the trade news gets worse.  To be sure, the arrest of that Chinese executive will play into this scenario: will the Chinese make a major concession to buy her way out of jail or will they up the ante?

Ditto, the coming budget slowdown---if you assume, which I do---that there nothing for the dems in a compromise.  Trump either backs down or shuts down the government---historically not a winning strategy.

Clearly, I could be wrong about any or all the above. But even if I am right, I want to be clear. While there is the potential for negative economic outcomes, I don’t think it likely that my economic forecast will be effected in a major way. 

However, one or more of them could exacerbate the growing illiquidity in the Market as the Fed continues to unwind its balance sheet.  (As you might expect, I have been talking everyone I can to get a handle on whether the Fed’s more dovish stance on interest rates also means a slowdown in the runoff of its balance sheet.  Most agree that the unwinding will continue at its current pace). 
      
            Income and valuations.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            October factory orders fell 2.1% versus estimates of -2.0%; the September reading was revised from +0.7% to +0.2%.

            The November Markit services PMI was reported at 54.7 versus forecasts of 54.4.

            The November ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 60.7 versus consensus of 59.2.

            November nonfarm payrolls grew by 155,000 jobs versus expectations of 190,000; the October number was revised from up 250,000 to plus 237,000.

     International

            October German factory orders rose 0.3% versus expectations of -0.5%; but industrial production was down 0.5% versus projections of up 0.4%.

            Q3 EU GDP advanced 0.2%, in line.

    Other

            Household net worth increased in the third quarter.

            NAFTA and NAFTA 2.0.  Is there really a difference?

            Light vehicle sales per capita.

            More on Powell’s dovish tilt.

            Did the Markets ignore his real message?

            The latest on Brexit.

            The latest from OPEC.

What I am reading today

            Defining risk.

                        Common errors of the left.

            The demise of blockchain is greatly exaggerated.


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