Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The Morning Call--Santa Claus rally still possible


The Morning Call

11/13/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25387, S&P 2726) gave back some of the gains from the last two weeks.   The Dow ended back below its 100 DMA (one trading day after its reversion to support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance), closed the most recent gap opens but above its 200 DMA (now support).

The S&P finished below its 100 DMA for (now resistance), back below its 200 DMA, negating last Thursday’s upside break (now resistance) and also closed the most recent gap open.

I don’t think that yesterday’s pin action is a negative sign that the positive seasonal and calendar effects won’t exert their usual influence.  Indeed, I have been pointing for the last week that those two gap opens probably needed to be filled before the indices could mount a challenge to their former highs or the upper boundaries of their long term uptrend. If the thesis is correct then more downside is coming in order to close the initial gap opens.

Volume actually rose on the holiday trading; breadth was bad.

The VIX was up 16 %, but not as much as I expected on a 600 point down day in the Dow.  It remains above both MA’s and within a short term uptrend.

The bond market was closed.

The dollar was up 7/8 %, continuing its strong performance.  I remain of the opinion that UUP will move higher as long as the dollar funding problem persists. 

GLD fell ¾ %, ending below its 100 DMA (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance) and the lower boundary of the trading range is was trying to build. 

 Bottom line: the bad news is that the S&P was unable to successfully challenge its 200 DMA and still needs to close its late October gap open.   The good news is that both of the Averages closed the most recent gap open and the positive seasonal and calendar factors aren’t going away. 

The positive scenario is that the indices fall further and close the initial gap open, then go on to challenge higher resistance levels. The negative scenario is that the seasonal and calendar factors can’t offset the negatives being posed by an irresponsible fiscal policy, a tightening Fed and overly generous stock valuations.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            No economic releases yesterday.

            And not a lot of news.  However, here are articles on my three favorite subjects.

(1)   peak fiscal indiscipline.

And:

(2)   change in central bank balance sheets in the second half.

(3)   new China anti IP theft policy.  Trump should have doing this all along instead of getting bogged down in a tariff dispute.

***overnight, top US and Chinese trade officials will meet in anticipation of Xi/Trump talks at G20 meeting.

            Bottom line: the economic/Market fundamentals are not improving and valuations are too high (as calculated by my Valuation Model).  There is the possibility of an end of the year, Santa Claus, rally.  If that takes place, I would use the opportunity to build cash---if you haven’t already done so.


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Home Depot (NYSE:HD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.51 beats by $0.26.
Revenue of $26.3B (+5.1% Y/Y) beats by $60M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The October small business optimism index was reported at 107.4 versus expectations of 108.0.

     International

    Other

            What do falling oil prices mean?

            Latest on the Italy/EU standoff.

            Bank of Japan’s total assets are now larger than the country’s GDP.

What I am reading today

            Why social security will never run out of money.

                The financial problems of state pension funds.

                The world’s healthiest people don’t go to the gym.

                Can you afford to retire?

                North Korea expands secret missile bases.


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