Friday, October 19, 2018

The Morning Call--The technicals will tell us


The Morning Call

10/19/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25379, S&P 2768) were down big yesterday.  Volume rose but breadth was mixed---a little unusual.  The Dow ended below its 100 DMA, negating Tuesday’s break (now resistance).  The S&P finished right on its 200 DMA---follow through.

The VIX was up 15 ¼ %, retaining its positive chart---meaning it is a negative for stocks.

The long bond was down fractionally, remaining in short term and very short term downtrends and below both moving averages.   Still a negative technical picture.

The dollar was up another ½ % and continues to have a positive technical standing.  It is again nearing its August high, a challenge of which would be a plus.  I continue to believe that UUP will move higher as long as the dollar funding problem persists. 

GLD rose but still finished below its 100 DMA (now resistance).  Certainly not a sign that investors are seeking a safety trade.

 Bottom line: the bulls and bears are duking it out around the S&P 200 DMA; so until it breaks either below its 200 DMA or above its 100 DMA and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend (they are roughly the same level), it makes sense to assume that the aforementioned battle will be waged between those two levels. 

There are still two positive seasonal factors at work (1) stocks have traditionally traded higher in the months of November and December (2) this earnings season is off to a very upbeat start; if that continues, it should provide additional buoyancy to stock prices.

The long bond and the dollar both continued to react to the hawkish Wednesday FOMC minutes.   Gold remains in never, never land.

            Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data was weighed to the upside: weekly jobless claims and the October Philly Fed manufacturing index were better than expected while the September leading economic indicators were in line.
             
              Most of the economic headlines were of the ‘below the fold’ type.

(1)   Chinese stock market plummeting [see yesterday’s Morning Call],

(2)   rising uncertainty over the EU/Italy budget food fight.

                 EU officially slams Italian budget.

                       Draghi adds his two cents worth.

(3)   the US pulling out of the Saudi investment conference.

              Bottom line: the technicals are going to tell us how seriously investors are concerned about the Fed tightening, the softening in the global economy, the dollar funding problem, the increase in non bank high risk leveraged loans and the economic/political turmoil in China, Italy and now Saudi Arabia. 
             
              More on the shadow banking system (must read):

              It seems like a lot of fundamental issues (to me) for the Market to absorb without, at least, some minor heartburn; especially at today’s lofty valuations.  But maybe the indices dip to challenge their 200 DMA’s is the aforementioned ‘minor heartburn’.  

              However positive the unwinding of QE may be for the long term health of US capital markets, at some point, in my opinion, it in my opinion, its stillnding of QE may be for the long term health of US capital marketsl the listed illsrnening in the globalis still wholly or in part responsible for all the above listed ills and will raise the pain level beyond a minor heartburn.  I just don’t know when. 

              As a result, I am glad that I own cash; and I am glad that I have positions in the stocks of high quality companies that are consistently growing their dividends at an above average pace.

            The benefits of a bear market.

            The latest from Leon Cooperman.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) declares $0.39/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.48 in-line; GAAP EPS of $1.49 misses by $0.01.
Revenue of $4.72B (+15.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $8.5B (+7.5% Y/Y) misses by $90M.

V.F. Corp (NYSE:VFC): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.43 beats by $0.10; GAAP EPS of $1.26 misses by $0.08.
Revenue of $3.91B (+15.3% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
V.F. Corp (NYSE:VFC) declares $0.51/share quarterly dividend, 10.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.46.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The September leading economic indicators rose 0.5%, in line.

     International

            Third quarter Chinese GDP rose 1.6%, in line; retail sales were up 9.2% versus expectations of up 9.1%; fixed asset investments were up 5.4% versus 5.3%; industrial output +.5% versus +.53%.

    Other

           

            US pulls out of Saudi investment conference.

            More:

What I am reading today

            That was then, this is now (on political discourse)

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