Tuesday, October 23, 2018

The Morning Call---Earnings season getting less positive


The Morning Call

10/23/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25317, S&P 2755) traded lower yesterday.  Volume declined and breadth was mixed.  The Dow ended back below its 100 DMA (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  The S&P finished below 200 DMA (now support; if it remains there through the close on Thursday, it will revert to resistance).  As you know, this boundary has been a critical support level for the last two years; so any break will be meaningful.  On the other hand, it was challenged unsuccessfully last week.  So I am not going to take yesterday’s pin action too seriously until we get later in the week or prices really get hammered (which is happening this morning).

            Morgan Stanley of the current pin action.

The VIX was down 1 ¼ %, but retains its positive chart---meaning it is a negative for stocks.

The long bond was down again, remaining in short term and very short term downtrends and below both moving averages.   Still a negative technical picture.

The dollar jumped, making a second higher high, and resumed its progress towards a challenge of its August high.  It continues to have a positive technical standing.  I still to believe that UUP will move higher as long as the dollar funding problem persists. 

GLD was down, remaining below its 100 DMA (now resistance).  After resetting its short term trend to a trading range, there has just been no follow through to the upside.

 Bottom line: the S&P closed below its S&P 200 DMA---a critical support level.  However, the break was minor.  For the moment, I think that the trading range bounded by its 200 DMA on the downside and its 100 DMA/upper boundary of its very short term downtrend on the upside is the more important technical element. 

The longer stocks remain relatively stable in a narrow range, the closer we get to the powerful positive seasonal pattern in November and December---meaning the lower the odds of much lower prices.  On the other hand, this earnings seasons continues upbeat but (1) the overall performance is becoming much less positive and (2) even when companies beat their estimates their stock prices have been reacting negatively.  No wonder stocks are going nowhere.

The long bond and the dollar both continued to act like rates are going higher.   Gold remains in never, never land.

            Monday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines
               
            One datapoint yesterday: the September Chicago national activity index came in slightly below expectations; but the August reading was revised up significantly, making the combo a plus.
               
            The big economic headline of the day was Trump’s statement that he and the GOP congress are working on a pre-election middle income tax cut.  I am assuming that this is more of a political statement versus an economic one.  So I doubt its import, especially if the dems take the house in the elections.

            This week will be the statistical mode of this earnings season.  I have commented several times about the good start to earnings season; however as time has progressed, reports are starting to be either in line with estimates or below.  More importantly, a report shows that the pin action on earnings beats is changing; that is, stocks of companies beating estimates have declined---clearly suggesting that the good news is in the prices.  And remember, we are nearing the point where the impact of the tax cuts on profits will be annualized---meaning the rate of earnings increases is going to drop noticeably.
      
            Bottom line:  if stocks continue to be unimpressed with strong earnings reports, the question is, what takes prices higher?  Possible answers: resolution of China trade dispute, an easier Fed, stronger than expected economic performance here and abroad.  Each of us has to decide on the probabilities of any or all of them occurring.  At the moment, my odds suggest that my portfolio needs cash to provide buying power at lower valuations.

            And.
           
            Are the buy the dippers still around?

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Boeing (NYSE:BA) declares $1.71/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.86 beats by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $2.88 beats by $0.16.
Revenue of $13.5B (+18.4% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.58 misses by $0.13.
Revenue of $8.15B (-0.2% Y/Y) misses by $260M.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.10 beats by $0.11.
Revenue of $5.37B (-6.6% Y/Y) beats by $80M.

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.93 beats by $0.11; GAAP EPS of $1.54 misses by $0.23.
Revenue of $16.51B (+9.6% Y/Y) beats by $360M.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has made a tender offer for the outstanding shares of Japanese skincare firm Ci:z Holdings that it doesn't already own for ¥230B ($2.05B) in cash.
It's already the second largest shareholder of the Japanese firm, with a 19.9% stake through its affiliate.
J&J is betting the deal, which will give it ownership of the Ci:z's popular brands, will help it strengthen its international innovation pipeline.
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

    Other

            FICO gets creative with credit scores.

            Latest from Italy.

                        The cost of tariffs.



What I am reading today

            Three costly mistakes to avoid.
                       
            The growing pension/retirement crisis.


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