Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Tuesday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

9/4/18

The Market
         
    Technical
               
              There is really not much to add to my last comment.  The S&P is in a strong uptrend, supported by all three timeframes and both moving averages.  Having firmly traded above its prior high, the assumption has to be that the S&P will challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (3065).  The only potential negative is the gap up on its move above its former high.  Traditionally, a gap is closed.



             The long bond remains stuck in the ever narrowing pennant formation marked by the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  For the last three weeks, it has traded above both its 100 and 200 DMAs, suggesting that the buyers are a bit stronger than the sellers.  Nonetheless, what really matters, technically, is which way it breaks out of this pattern.  Historically, the negating of such a formation in one direction has been followed by a continuing move in that direction.



            The dollar has sold off, negating its very short term uptrend.  However, so far it still made a higher low, meaning it has a lot of strength (buyers)---contributing to the continuing global dollar funding problem.  Last week the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira were joined by the Indonesian rupiah in a major weakening (medium):
                       
            More:

And still more (must read):
                 

      
            GLD has managed a very weak rally.  Notice that the last high was lower than the previous high which speaks to that weakness.  In short, this continues to be an ugly chart.



            The VIX hasn’t really done much over the last couple of weeks.  It did unsuccessfully challenge its 100 DMA twice which points to continuing positive price movement in stocks.



            Friday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The week of 8/13/18, the economic data was mixed as were the primary indicators.

            The week of 8/20/18, the economic data was overwhelmingly negative including the primary indicators.  The two major headlines of the week were (1) the fizzling of the US/China talks, which I hadn’t expected much of anyway and (2) the Powell Jackson Hole speech which the Market took as dovish---the economy is awesome, so a gradualist approach to monetary policy is appropriate. 

            More (medium):

            Meanwhile, it appears that the Japanese are inching further into ‘tapering’ territory (medium):

            The week of 8/27/18 the numbers were a plus.  The big headline was the US/Mexico trade agreement---signs that the ‘art of the deal’ may be working.  Most important, if there is follow through with Canada, the EU and China, there will most definitely be a positive impact on the long term secular growth rate of the US economy.
           
            Speaking of which, as of Friday, the US and Canada have not reached an agreement.

            Trump rejects EU offer to eliminate all tariffs on autos (medium):

            And moves forward with tariffs on Chinese goods (medium):

Score: in the last 151 weeks, fifty-one were positive, seventy negative and thirty mixed.
                   
         Bottom line: the economy continues to grow, though initial estimates of third quarter growth are below 2Q results.  At the risk of repeating myself, I believe that the economy is in an uptrend; I just believe that second quarter growth was a temporary phenomenon related to the tax cuts and that the economy is not on some new upward trajectory.

         That said, if Trump can repeat his trade success with Mexico in Canada, the EU and China, it would add meaningfully to the long term secular growth rate of the economy.

         Finally, the central banks are tapering.  Not aggressively so, but tapering nonetheless---meaning all that excess liquidity that led to the mispricing and misallocation of assets is being withdrawn which I believe will ultimately lead to the correction in pricing and allocation.  We can already see it in the dollar funding problems being experienced by several emerging market economies.  I don’t know when the end of QE will start to impact the US; but as long as tapering continues that time gets closer.  Again at the risk of repeating myself, I believe that the effect will be much more pronounced on the Market (asset pricing) than on the economy,

The latest from David Stockman (medium):


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
            Coke makes $5 billion bid for coffee company (medium):

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

    Other

            Post tariff agriculture prices (short):

            July real disposable income (medium):

            The latest third quarter GDP forecasts (short):


What I am reading today

           

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