Tuesday, September 18, 2018

The Morning Call---Trump ups the ante, Markets snooze


The Morning Call

9/18/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 26062, S&P 2888) retreated yesterday on flat volume and mixed breadth.  However, they remain strong technically; and my assumption is that they will challenge the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends (29807, 3065).

The VIX spiked 13 ½ %---a lot more than normally expected on a day in which the Dow is down 100 points.  In doing so, it ended back above its 100 DMA (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support) but remained below its 200 DMA (now resistance). This see sawing around the middle of its short term trading range as stock prices are rising is making it less valuable as a directional indicator. 

The long bond was unchanged, finishing below its 200 DMA (now resistance), its 100 DMA (now resistance), and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend for a fifth day, resetting to trading range (at least officially).  As I noted several times last week, TLT has already challenged, some successfully, this boundary a number of times over the last twelve months and subsequently regained the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Given this poor recent record of marking the break of the TLT long term uptrend, my reset of trend call is a weak one.  I am waiting for a longer follow through than normal before concluding that TLT’s long term uptrend is over.

The dollar fell, but remained above the second very short term higher.  So it continues to be technically strong and.  Its pin action is not likely to change as long as dollar funding problems continue in the emerging markets.
                       

           GLD was up, but is still the ugliest chart on the block.
               
          Bottom line: the indices remain technically strong. I continue to believe that they will challenge the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends. 

The dollar will likely remain strong until the dollar funding problems are resolved. 

The pin action in TLT is my main focus.  Even though I am being cautious in calling a break in its long term uptrend, it is still a break.  And if it is indeed marking the end of the huge bull market (declining interest rates) in bonds, there are significant implications in all the other Markets. 

            Yesterday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

We started the week with a poor datapoint: the NY Fed’s September manufacturing index came in well below estimates.

Investors remain focused on the emerging markets dollar funding problem---here is a good discussion of it happened: (medium):
      
            As had been anticipated, Trump upped the ante in the trade dispute with China.  Last night, he imposed tariffs on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods.  Of note (1) the tariffs start at 10% but will rise to 25% in January 2019 if no progress is made.  From a macroeconomic point of view that would add only single digit tens of a percent to CPI.  So this is not a punishing move for the US consumer, (2) about $180 million in imports were actually removed from the original list, (3) Trump threatened to add another $267 billion in tariffs if China retaliates and (4) the Chinese immediate response was fairly calm.

            Part of the problem is the Chinese refusal to negotiate; most likely their motive is to wait to see the mid-term election results---which could determine how strong a hand Trump has to play (an expression of disapproval from the electorate could not only result in a change of control in the house but weaken his moral authority).  So the ‘trade war’ with China likely isn’t going anywhere until after November 7th.

Here is Goldman’s take (medium):

           Bottom line: we keep getting reminded that the economy is not as strong as Market narrative portrays---that will eventually show up is disappointing earnings.   We keep getting reminded that the Fed’s unwinding of QE is causing problems for weak credit borrowers as they struggle to service loans that they shouldn’t have taken out in the first place---that eventually will show up strained bank balance sheets/liquidity and slowing US overseas sales.  We keep getting reminded that the trade issues are not going away anytime soon---that eventually will show up in slower economic growth if not resolved.  None of these circumstances need be ruinous to the economy.  But eventually they will likely alert investors that they are paying too much for future earnings. 

           I believe the risk/reward tradeoff in equity prices weighs heavily on risk.  Accordingly, I want to own some cash when equities mean revert.

            A recovery based debt funding isn’t a recovery at all (medium):

            Stock valuation hinges on interest rates and inflation (medium):

            Today’s look back at the financial crisis (medium):

            The latest from David Stockman (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
           
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.71 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $9.19B (+1.0% Y/Y) misses by $120M.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.19/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
General Mills (NYSE:GIS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.71 beats by $0.07; GAAP EPS of $0.65.
Revenue of $4.09B (+8.5% Y/Y) misses by $30M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

    Other

            The latest on student loans (medium):

            The latest look at the big four economic indicators (medium):
           
Hotel occupancy rates are declining (short):

What I am reading today

            Beware of those selling private equity funds (medium):

            Waffle House and risk management (medium):

            Quote of the day (short):

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