Friday, August 17, 2018

The Morning Call--Pardon my cynicism


The Morning Call

8/17/18

I am off to California for an extended Labor Day holiday. I will be back on September 4th. 

The Market
         
    Technical

As you know, I have assumed that the indices would close the gap down opening from last Friday; but not quite as dramatically as they did yesterday.  The Averages (DJIA 25558, S&P 2840) rallied hard presumably on news that the US/China trade negotiations would resume soon.  Volume was up.  Breadth improved though not as much as I would have thought; plus the flow of funds was flat. The indices remain strong technically; though closing that gap as they did, I wonder if there is much upside left short term. 

In addition, while the VIX sold off and negated Wednesday’s upside break of its 200 DMA, it didn’t sell off as much as I think normal for such a powerful up day in the indices.  Finally, the Dow’s 100 DMA continues to sit right on its 200 DMA.  A cross to the downside would be a negative signal. 

Evaluating market breadth (medium):

All that said, I believe that the Averages will challenge their all-time highs,


TLT’s battle with its long term uptrend’s lower boundary remains on hold as it has become a safety trade while investors try to digest the turmoil in the currency markets.  The question remains, is the Turkish/emerging markets crisis a short term problem (and the Market’s focus will return to the earlier dispute over the long term direction of interest rates) or is it a sign of more dollar funding problems for the global banking system (in which case it will remain a safety trade)? 

As witness to the concern over the dollar funding problem, the upcoming China/US trade negotiations, which got the equity boys all hot and bothered, did little to impress the bond market.  TLT continues to advance (though it was off one cent on the day) and is now above its 200 DMA for the second day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will revert to support).  The pennant formation marked by the declining upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend continues to narrow; TLT is nearing the top of that range. This story isn’t over.  Stay tuned.
                       
          The dollar was down two cents but remains very strong, likely reflecting its function as a safety trade---and like TLT was totally unmoved by the China news.  GLD continues to get hammered---I have to wonder if this is the result of those countries with dollar funding problems selling their gold reserves to raise money to defend their currencies.
               
            Bottom line: trade moved the Market yesterday; but as I read the news release, I am not sure it is worth 400 Dow points.  In the meantime, the currency problems in Turkey/emerging markets aren’t going away, at least as far as TLT and UUP are concerned.  This remains a very fluid situation whose outcome is highly uncertain.  To be clear, it could go either way.  But until there is some clarity, most of the indicators that I follow will likely continue to be effected by the need for safety.    

            Yesterday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were pretty dismal: July housing starts/permits were quite disappointing and the August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was half of expectations.  The bright spot was slightly better than anticipated weekly jobless claims.

            Overseas, the data was mixed: July UK retail sales were better than forecast while July Japanese exports declined dramatically.

            The six inch headline of the day was the scheduled restart of US/Chinese trade talks which investors apparently were thrilled with.  To be sure, the whole object of Trump’s strategy is to revise the current trade regime with China, so this is clearly good news.  That said, the Chinese are sending low level officials so the best we can likely hope for is an agreement to talk at a higher level.  So nothing concrete is going to occur near term.  And forgive my cynicism, but the Chinese are having major currency and capital flow problems all tied to the dollar and what better way to take the heat off than make nice with trade.

            In the meantime, Turkey’s lira continues to fall (medium):

            Turkey can’t sidestep the IMF for long (medium):
      
            Mohamed El Erian is not impressed with Turkeys’ move to support the lira (medium):

            Don’t forget Italy’s problems (medium):

            Bottom line: nothing would make me happier than to cut a trade deal with China; but I just can’t believe that the Chinese will make any concessions at least until the November elections are over.  So I think that investors may have gotten ahead of themselves yesterday. 

In the meanwhile, the Fed is tightening, so the dollar funding problems in the emerging markets are not going away.  Whether they become more widespread is the issue.  And I don’t know the answer; although for the moment, the problem seems contained.

            This isn’t over yet (medium):

            S&P 2018 earnings estimate (short):

            Is the Fed model a good valuation tool? (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) declares $0.55/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $1.03/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

July EU CPI was in line.

    Other

            The Fed remains on track to raise rates in September (medium):

            Update on big four economic indicators (medium):

            China’s problems could be worse than Turkey’s (medium):

What I am reading today

            The public pension clock (medium):

            Taking more risk does not guarantee more reward (medium and a must read):

            Quote of the day (short):

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