The Morning Call
8/6/18
The
Market
Technical
There
is nothing to criticize about the S&P chart. The index is firmly in an uptrend and I assume
that it will challenge its all-time high, at the very least. The Dow’s chart is not quite so strong; but
not weak enough to pose a problem for the S&P or stocks in general.
The
long bond’s chart remains the most important to watch. On Friday, TLT closed right on its 100 DMA
and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend. A close above those levels would have negated
their break; a close below would have caused the 100 DMA to revert to
resistance and kept the challenge of the long term uptrend intact. With this close, it keeps everything on
hold. The good news is that if today’s
pin action is anything but flat, we should get some clarity.
The
dollar had a good week and is now near a challenge of its late June high. Its performance remains strong, ending above
both moving averages and in a short term uptrend. It is suggesting that rates are going higher.
GLD’s
chart is as ugly as the S&P is positive.
It is also suggesting the rates are going higher.
The
VIX is drawing nearer the low end of its four week trading range (the lower boundary
of its short term trading range). It has
unsuccessfully challenged that boundary six times. Will seven be a charm?
Fundamental
Headlines
The
over the weekend updates on:
(1) the US/China
trade war (medium):
(2)
sanctions against Iran (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) declares $1.00/share quarterly dividend, 28.2%
increase from prior dividend of $0.78.
Illinois
Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) approved a new share repurchase program
to buy back up to $3B of the common stock, representing ~22M shares based on
ITW’s closing share price on August 2, 2018.
The existing share
repurchase authorization of $6B announced in February 2015 has approximately
$1.4B remaining in that program as of June 30, 2018.
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
Other
What
I am reading today
Appealing fictions
(medium):
Crypto whale blows up (medium):
Scientists believe that they have
solved the mystery of the Bermuda Triangle (medium):
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