Wednesday, July 18, 2018

The Morning Call--What bad news?


The Morning Call

7/18/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25119, S&P 2809) rose yesterday, maintaining their upward momentum.  Volume was up slightly; breadth improved.   The Dow continued to trade above its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now support), within a short term trading range but remains below its June resistance high.  The S&P ended above both moving averages, in uptrends across all timeframes and above the minor resistance from its June high.  The assumption has to be that the indices will challenge their all-time highs (26656/2874).

VIX was down 6 %, finishing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and within a short term trading range but near its lower boundary.

The long Treasury was down fractionally, but still ending well above its 100 and 200 day moving averages, in a long term uptrend but in a short term downtrend.  These two trends (the upper boundary of the short term downtrend and the lower boundary of the long term uptrend) continue to narrow (they are about 3 points a part).  A break of one of these barriers should be directionally important.
           
            The dollar was up, staying above both moving averages and in a short term uptrend.  
           
            Gold (116) was down 1% on heavy volume, closing below both moving averages (its 100 DMA is near to crossing below its 200 DMA---an additional negative), within a short term downtrend and below the minor support offered by its December 2017 low.  The next visible support level is the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (106); so there is plenty of room for more downside.

            Bottom line: the technical position of the indices continues to improve---the only real negative being that both 100 day moving averages continue to fall toward their 200 day moving averages.  The assumption remains that stock prices are going higher.   TLT, UUP and GLD continue to perform like investors are betting on a relatively positive US economy versus the rest of the world’s economy.  The only problem, in my opinion, is that doing less poorly than the rest of the world is not a reason for stocks to advance when they are already near historic high valuations.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic stats were mixed: month to date retail chain store sales growth was down, July housing index was in line and June industrial production was in line (though the May number was revised down big).

            Fed chair Powell completed his first of two days of congressional testimony.  The narrative remains upbeat: labor market strong, inflation on track, fiscal policy a plus to growth, the banks in solid financial condition.  What’s not to like?  Importantly, it justifies the Fed staying on track for rate hikes and the unwind of its balance sheet.  But he cautioned that this is all subject to change if the data changes (dovish caveat which the Markets embraced).  However, I don’t believe that it is the data that Fed is worried about; it is the Market.  So the $64,000 question is, will policy change if the Market changes?

            Highlights from Powell’s prepared statement (medium):
      
            I think it also an important indication of investor sentiment that Netflix, an investor darling and one of the best performing of the Market leading FANG stocks, issued a disappointing narrative on subscriber growth (the stock was down 5%) and the Market showed little weakness aside from that specific to Netflix. 

            Bottom line: a possible trade war. who cares? the Fed expects to continue to tighten monetary policy.  Pffffff.  the yield curve is flattening. give me a break. Trump stomps on his own d**k.  so what. a Market darling disappoints.  fugitabotit.  Stocks are going up; and that’s great.  But doesn’t keep me from feeling comfortable with a decent cash position.

            The latest BofA macro investor survey (medium):

            The tax cut and earnings growth (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $3.13/share quarterly dividend, 8.7% increase from prior dividend of $2.88.

W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW): Q2 EPS of $4.37 beats by $0.65.
Revenue of $2.86B (+9.2% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data
           

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

            June industrial production was up 0.6%, in line; however, the May reading was revised from -0.1% to -0.5%; capacity utilization was 78%, in line.

            The July housing index came in at 68, in line.

                Trouble ahead for the housing market (medium):

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.5% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

            June housing starts declined 12.2% expectations of a 0.2% decrease.


     International

    Other

            Freight volume and recession (short):

            Lehman Brothers and the Fed (short):

            Trade tension and China (medium):

What I am reading today

            The high administrative costs of the US health care system (medium):

            Growing your portfolio takes time and patience (medium):
           
            Records are made to be broken (short):

            The rationale for diversification (medium):

            The importance of humility (medium):


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