Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

7/16/18

The Market

         

    Technical

                   

            The S&P has put in two good weeks back to back.  It is above both moving averages, in uptrends across all timeframes and has traded through its June high.  It seems reasonable to expect it to now challenge its all-time high (2874).            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2018/07/making-sense-of-choppy-markets.html

         

           The upward momentum in the long bond continues.  It finished above both moving averages, in a long term uptrend and above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.  If it remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will reset to a trading range.  As I have noted TLT, UUP and GLD are all trading like the US economy is going to be relatively healthier than the rest of the world.  However, TLT’s performance is certainly not reflective of a strong economy.

          

           The dollar recovered last week, though it remains below its former high.  Still it is well above both moving averages (notice that the 100 day has crossed above the 200 day; technically, a very positive sign) and within a short term uptrend.

           How about this for a sick looking chart?  The only positive for GLD is that is nearing support offered by its December 2017 low.

          The VIX did a round trip last week, ending down.  It closed below both moving averages and appears ready to challenge the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  If successful, that would definitely be a plus for stock prices.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

      

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Brown-Forman (BF.B +0.5%) board approves share repurchase authorization of $200M.

PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) declares $0.9275/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

           

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK): Q2 EPS of $6.66 beats by $0.11.

Revenue of $3.61B (+11.4% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            June retail sales rose 0.5%, in line; ex autos and gas, it was up 0.3% versus estimates of up 0.5%.

            The July NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 22.6 versus expectations of 21.0.

     International

            Second quarter Chinese GDP, in line; June retail sales better than expected, industrial production worse (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-15/china-gdp-xxxxxxx-despite-record-contraction-shadow-banking-credit

    Other

            What the end of the credit cycle will look like (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-13/what-end-credit-cycle-may-look-and-how-trade-it

               

            Quote of the day (medium):

            https://cafehayek.com/2018/07/quotation-of-the-day-2495.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

            Problems for Japanese stocks (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-15/problem-emerges-japanese-stocks-market-whale-now-full

What I am reading today

           

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