Wednesday, June 6, 2018

The Morning Call---Tech multiples going intergalactic


The Morning Call

6/6/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24799, S&P 2748) had a mixed day (Dow down, S&P up).  Volume declined; breadth was directionless.   The Dow again finished right on its 100 day moving average (now resistance).  The S&P ended above its 100 day moving average (now support).  Both remained above their 200 day moving averages (now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 

The resistance from the 100 day moving average may be giving way with the Dow in the midst of a challenge and the S&P looking like it is going to break away from its gravitational pull.  Still until that barrier can be overcome by both indices, stocks are at stall speed.  Longer term, the assumption is that stocks are moving higher.
               
                The VIX fell 2 ½ %, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now resistance) and below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend---pointing to higher stock prices.

The long Treasury finally rallied, finishing over its 100 day moving (now support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance).  It remained within its long term uptrend and short term downtrend.

The dollar fell fractionally, closing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now support) and in short term uptrend.  However, it ended below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend for a second day, voiding that trend.
               
GLD actually had an up day, but still ended below its 100 and 200 day moving average (now resistance) and in a short term downtrend, though is it is nearing the upper boundary of that trend.
               
Bottom line:  the Averages made a weak attempt to try to break free of the 100 day moving average.  More follow through is needed to accomplish that.  I remain confused by the messages being sent by the bond, dollar and gold markets.
           

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic releases were upbeat: the May services PMI and the ISM nonmanufacturing indices were both better than expected though month to date retail chain store sales growth slowed.  However, the overseas data was poor.
                 
            ***overnight, EU central bankers confirmed that the ECB ‘is ready to consider exiting its massive bond buying program’.  ‘Ready to consider’ being the operative phrase.

            Like Monday, there were no macro headlines though debate continued about Trump’s trade policy:

            China’s overture to the US (short):

            Congress and tariffs (short):
           
            Thoughts on trade (short):
           
            Fears of a trade war aren’t bothering economists---yet (medium):

           Bottom line: so far this week, investors have been focused on specific industries (retail, oil, tech) and companies (Starbucks, Tesla) with lots of big moves in the tech sector which have been the Market darlings for years---the net effect being that valuations are going from stratospheric to intergalactic.   I would take this opportunity to sell a portion of any big winners---‘a portion’ being the operative phrase.

           Update on valuation:

           Dividends by the numbers in May (short):

           How corporations spent their tax cut (medium):

           Bridgewater is bearish (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): Q4 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $733M (+5.6% Y/Y) misses by $21.9M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

            The May PMI services index came in at 56.8 versus estimates of 55.7.

            The May ISM nonmanufacturing index was reported at 58.6 versus expectations of 58.0.

                Weekly mortgage applications rose 4.1% while purchase applications increased 4.0%.

            The April trade deficit was $46.2 billion versus projections of $49.0 billion.

            First quarter nonfarm productivity rose 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.7%; unit labor costs rose 2.9% versus consensus of up 2.8%.

     International

    Other

            Slow wage growth and consumer debt (medium):

            An in depth look at last Friday’s payroll report (medium):

            Jim Chanos on cryptocurrencies and China (medium and a must read):

            More on China’s debt problem (medium):

            ***overnight, the Bank of China expanded its lending facility to lower grade corporate bonds (medium):

            Second quarter GDP growth estimates remain strong (medium):

            This is a thoughtful article on how the ‘baby boom’ generation wrecked the US economy---much of which I agree with (medium and a must read):

What I am reading today

            Five steps to take before deciding to retire (medium):

            The fallacy of the ‘wealth effect’ (medium):

            Don’t confuse ‘stuff’ with investments (medium):

            Medicare and social security insolvency dates near (medium):


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