Monday, June 25, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

6/25/18

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P took a rest last week but retained its upward momentum---remaining above both moving averages and in uptrends across all timeframes.  The one factor to watch is the rollover of its 100 day moving average which appears to be headed for a crossover of its 200 day moving average---a negative technical signal.



            The long bond unsuccessfully challenged its 200 day moving average but remained near it.  It continues to trade above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Importantly, it is meandering between the shrinking range topped by its 200 day moving average and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and limited on the downside by its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.



            The dollar re-established its very short term uptrend last week.  It remained above both moving averages and in a short term uptrend.  So Friday’s minor decline notwithstanding, it maintains good momentum to the upside.



            Gold continues its abysmal performance.  Clearly, no one seems interested in it as a safety trade.



            The VIX continued its bounce off the lower boundary of its short term trading range---suggesting that it may have hit a bottom.  However, it unsuccessfully challenged its 200 day moving average (now resistance)---suggesting a new volatility regime is not in the making. 



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Latest on trade with China (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The May Chicago national activity index was -.15 versus estimates of +.37

     International

            June German business expectations came in at 98.6 versus forecasts of 98.1, current conditions were 105.1 versus 105.7 and business climate was 101.8, in line,

    Other

            Update on student loans (medium):

What I am reading today

           

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