Monday, June 18, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

6/18/18

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P held its ground last week in the face of a lot of news---not all of it good.  It is somewhat surprising that investors retained their cool and the long bond and dollar reacted sharply to trade war threats.



            The long Treasury spiked late last week as investors grew increasingly concerned about a potential trade war.  However, it still has a lot of work to do to regain short term upside momentum---as its 200 day moving average and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend loom overhead.



            The dollar held gains achieved earlier in the week and maintained longer term upward momentum.  Like bonds, last week’s pin action was indicative of a safety trade.



            After resetting its short term trend to a trading range, GLD got hammered on huge volume on Friday pushing it below the lower boundary of that newly reset trading range.  If it remains there through the close tomorrow, it will reset to a downtrend.  It clearly did not perform as one would expect a safety trade.



            Even though the VIX staged a one day unsuccessful challenge of the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, it still had a relatively calm week.  Its pin action continues to suggest higher stock prices.



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