Friday, June 29, 2018

The Morning Call---The economy is not that strong


The Morning Call

6/29/18

We leave this morning for a fourth of July break and will return July 9th.  If anything untoward occurs, I will blog.  Have a great holiday.

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24216, S&P 2716) bounced on lower volume yesterday.  Breadth improved.  The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) and the S&P closed above its MA (now support).  The DJIA ended below its 200 day moving average for a second day (now support; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to resistance) while the S&P remains above its MA (now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 
               
                The VIX fell 5 %, closing back below its 100 day moving average, negating Wednesday’s break, above its 200 day moving average for a fourth day, reverting to support.  (it continues to see saw above and below this MA) and within a short term trading range.  It looks like it bottomed in early June. 

The long Treasury was up slightly, ending above its 100 day moving average, the lower boundary of its long term uptrend and its 200 day moving average for a second day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to support) and remained in a short term downtrend.  It is clearly challenging the trading area bounded by the 100 DMA and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend and the 200 DMA and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.

The dollar was unchanged, finishing above both moving averages and within a short term and very short term uptrend.

Gold was down another ¼ %, ending below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.
               
Bottom line: the pin action improved a bit yesterday, though the DJIA’s technical position continues to deteriorate and both of the indices’ 100 day moving averages are rolling over.  In addition, the dollar and the long bond continue to trade like a safe haven---confirming somewhat the DJIA’s performance. On the other hand, the S&P remains above both moving averages and within uptrends across all timeframes.   As long as the S&P remains firmly in an uptrend, the assumption has to be that momentum remains to the upside.

            Yesterday in the charts (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data reports continued this week’s poor performance: weekly jobless claims rose more than expected plus (the third revised) first quarter GDP growth and the June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index were disappointing.  The one positive stat was that first quarter corporate profits improved from 4Q2017.
      
            ***overnight, the ECB, as part of its bond buying program, is considering investing in longer dated bonds which will (1) flatten the EU bond yield curve and (2) extend the life of any unwinding of its QE.

            For once in the last week, trade was off front page.  Indeed, it was a pretty slow news day.  Perhaps the biggest headline came after the Market close.  The Fed released the results of stage two of its stress test which addresses the banks’ ability/freedom to pay out capital to shareholders.  Not surprisingly, Deutschebank’s US subsidiary didn’t fare well.  But in addition, the Fed limited the proposed payouts of Goldman and Morgan Stanley, though they can still make some payout.  Following the release, virtually every bank announced a dividend increase and stock buyback. The importance here is that US banks are in much better shape to sustain negative events than they were in 2008.

Bottom line: while trade dominated the news cycle this week, the economic releases were quite negative including the primary indicators---which support my thesis that the economy isn’t nearly as strong as many contend.  As you know, I believe that second quarter numbers will be an improvement from the first quarter, probably stimulated by the tax increases.  But there has been no sustained consistency in the numbers.  Meaning, if I am correct, it will be necessitate not only the lowering of consensus EPS growth estimates but also P/E assumptions. (must read)

And it will only exacerbate the Market’s major problems from the rising level of consumer, corporate and government debt, the dollar funding problems of the emerging markets, including China and the Fed unwinding QE
           
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Nike (NYSE:NKE): Q4 EPS of $0.69 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $9.8B (+12.9% Y/Y) beats by $390M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 28 versus May’s reading of 29.

            May personal income rose 0.4%, in line; however, personal spending was up 0.2% versus expectations of up 0.4%.

      US

     International

    Other

            We are probably near peak housing (medium):

            Money supply growth slows (medium):

What I am reading today

            The next bear market could speak a retirement crisis (medium):
               
                Iran reopens nuclear facility (medium):      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/iranian-president-reopens-nuclear-plant-we-will-bring-us-its-knees

                      Italy refuses to sign EU summit statement (medium):


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Thursday, June 28, 2018

The Morning Call---Art of the deal Chapter 3?


The Morning Call

6/28/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24117, S&P 2699) had another rough day on higher volume.  But breadth remained mixed---a bit unusual for a big down day.  The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) and the S&P closed right on its MA (now support).  The DJIA ended below its 200 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to resistance) while the S&P remains above its MA (now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 

                Stock buybacks continue (short):

                The VIX jumped 12 ½ %, closing above its 100 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will revert to support), above its 200 day moving average for a third day (now resistance; if it remains through the close today, it will revert to support.  Remember it has see sawed above and below this MA over the last three weeks) and within a short term trading range.  It looks like it bottomed in early June. 

The long Treasury was up 1%, ending above its 100 day moving average, the lower boundary of its long term uptrend and now its 200 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to support) and remained in a short term downtrend.  It is clearly challenging the trading area bounded by the 100 DMA and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend and the 200 DMA and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.

The dollar was up another ½ %, finishing above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, both moving averages and within a short term uptrend.

Gold was down another ½ %, ending below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.
               
Bottom line: the pin action is getting even more sloppy.  Both indices are challenging support levels.  To be sure, the Dow is way ahead of the S&P in its down move; so before thinking about getting negative, the S&P needs to catch down.  Even if that occurs, the S&P still needs to successfully challenge its short term uptrend, before considering becoming a bear. 

Bonds and the dollar remain on the same page, if you view them as a safety trade.  Gold, which is normally a safety trade, continues to be just a lousy trade.

            Yesterday in charts (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The economic releases yesterday were again negative: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, May durable goods/ex transportation (primary indicator) and May pending home sales were below forecasts while the May trade deficit was better than anticipated (that should help Q2 GDP).

            Trade again dominated the headlines; and the operative word was confusion.  After the overnight news that Trump was backing off trade pressures against China, the administration ran out five advisors each with a different perspective---not the least of which was Larry Kudlow, chief economic advisor, who said that Trump had not changed his tough stance on China trade.  By the time this show was over, I had no idea what these guys were thinking or doing---but maybe that is all part of the art of the deal. 

            To be clear, my position remains that (1) I agree with what Trump is professing to want to accomplish---re-setting the global trade paradigm and (2) if he is successful, it would a be plus for the economy, (3) but the reverse is also true. 

I also recognize that his negotiating strategy is disconcerting to all parties including those in the US; but if the premise is right (that the trading regime needs to change), then using the negotiating strategies that created the current inequities in the first place probably isn’t going to work.  So Trump is going about it in another way.  I personally am prepared to let him do it; if for no other reason that if he really screws up, congress and/or the electorate will ultimately overrule him.

In the meantime, as long as everyone thinks that the ‘art of the deal’ involves more bark than bite, no one, including our trading partners, are going to take his bark seriously.  In other words, for his strategy to work, there has to be a bite.  How hard that has to be in order to get attention is an unknown. 

Bottom line: almost nothing has happened yet; and even if all the threats that have been made actually take place, the volume of trade involved is extremely small.  In addition, we don’t have an inkling of how these negotiations are going to turn out.   So I repeat my earlier observation---I don’t see trade worries changing the direction of the Market.  Volatility yes; a bear market no
  
            However, if you want something to worry about: the level of consumer, corporate and government debt continues to grow, the emerging markets, including China, are starting to have dollar funding problems for their own stratospheric dollar denominated debt levels, the Fed is unwinding QE, the economy is not nearly as strong (in my opinion) as dreamweavers think and the yield curve is flattening---all of which seem lost on the media and those hyperventilating over trade.
           

Asset prices are divorced from economic reality (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q4 EPS of $0.61 misses by $0.01.
Revenue of $871.1M (+9.1% Y/Y) beats by $2.14M.
           
Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q3 EPS of $1.79 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $10.31B (+16.2% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            May pending home sales fell 0.5% versus estimates of +0.6%.

            Weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 versus forecasts of +2,000.

            The third estimate of first quarter GDP was showed growth of 2.0% versus consensus of up 2.2%; after tax profits increased 2.7% versus 2017 4Q’s reading of up 0.1%.

     International

    Other

            The Bank of Japan now owns 42% of all government bonds and is a top tem shareholder in 40% of Japanese companies.  Tell me this won’t end badly.  (medium and a must read):

What I am reading today

            How to retire without a nest egg (medium):

           

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Wednesday, June 27, 2018

The Morning Call--Was this chapter 2 in the Art of the Deal?

The Morning Call

6/27/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24283, S&P 2723) stabilized yesterday after Monday’s trashing.  Volume declined and breadth was mixed.  The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) while the S&P remained above (now support).  The DJIA ended right on its 200 day moving average (again) while the S&P remains well above its MA (both now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 

                The VIX fell 8 %, closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), above its 200 day moving average for a second day (now resistance; if it remains through the close on Thursday, it will revert to support.  Remember it has see sawed above and below this MA over the last three weeks) and within a short term trading range.  It looks like it bottomed in early June. 

The long Treasury was up, ending above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend but below its 200 day moving average (though it is getting closer) and remained in a short term downtrend.  It seems trapped in the range defined by those indicators.

The dollar was up ½ %, finishing back above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, negating Monday’s break.  It remains above both moving averages and within a short term uptrend.

Gold was down ½ %, ending below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.
               
Bottom line: the DJIA’s pin action continues to be sloppy on a very short term basis---it is below its 100 day moving average, closed right on its 200 day moving average.  Meanwhile, the S&P remains above both its moving averages and in uptrends across all timeframes.  The only negative for the S&P is that its 100 day moving average is rolling over (along with the Dow’s).  Until the S&P is in sync with the Dow, it is too soon to get negative. 

On the other hand, bonds and the dollar finally got back on the same page, if you view them as a safety trade.  Gold, which is normally a safety trade, continues to be just a lousy trade.

           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic releases were negative: month to date retail chain store sales, the April Case Shiller home price index and June consumer confidence were below expectations while the June Richmond Fed manufacturing index was above.

            Trade remains front and center though the news was a bit more sanguine:
      
            Trump appears to be backing off some threats on Chinese theft of IP in light of proposed changes in CIFUS---though I have found nothing specific about what those changes are. (medium):

            More: (medium):

            ***overnight, Trump softens his position on IP theft as House passes strengthened CIFUS legislation (medium):

            Canada (which recently criticized US tariffs) joins the US imposing antidumping tariffs on Chinese steel (short):

            I noted in yesterday’s Morning Call that while the outcome of Trump’s trade policy (which could be a negative) is still an unknown, the impact of the rapidly increasing of US debt (which is known) will likely be a negative for growth.  Here is an IMF study supporting that thesis.  Having said that, 90% of the IMF’s output is bullsh*t.

            Bottom line: yesterday’s trade headlines are a great example how volatile the rhetoric on this issue is becoming.  And given the overnight news, all that we may have been witnessing is another chapter in the ‘art of the deal’.   So, I just don’t see how investors can start discounting of an unknown outcome to any meaningful degree.  As a result, the VIX may go nuts; but I think that it will be directionless. 

If that proves correct, then absent some other event, stock valuations should remain near current levels.  I look at this as a blessing for those who have not yet raised cash.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): Q3 EPS of $2.18 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $339.9M (+8.9% Y/Y) in-line.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

General Mills (NYSE:GIS): Q4 EPS of $0.79 beats by $0.07.

Revenue of $3.89B (+2.1% Y/Y) in-line.
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) declares $0.49/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.

            The April Case Shiller home price index rose 0.2% versus expectations of +0.5%.

            The June Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 20 versus estimates of 16.

            June consumer confidence was reported at 126.4 versus forecasts of 128.1.

                Weekly mortgage applications declined 4.9%; purchase applications were off 6.0%.

            May durable goods orders fell 0.6%, in line; ex transportation, they dropped 0.3% versus consensus of +0.5%.

            The May trade deficit was $64.8 billion versus projections of $68.8 billion.

     International

    Other

            The EU train wreck (medium):

           

            More on the dollar funding problem; this time in China (medium and a must read):

What I am reading today
           
Thoughts on immigration (short):
 
            Thoughts on passive investing (medium):

            Rioting in Tehran (medium):

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Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The Morning Call---A trade war hasn't happened yet, QE and the deficit have


The Morning Call

6/26/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24252, S&P 2717) got hammered yesterday on rising volume and deteriorating breadth.  The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) while the S&P remained above (now support).  The DJIA ended right on its 200 day moving average while the S&P remains well above its MA (both now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 
               
                The VIX spiked 26 %, closing right on its 100 day moving average (now resistance), above its 200 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains through the close on Thursday, it will revert to support.  Remember it has see sawed above and below this MA over the last three weeks) and within a short term trading range.  It looks like it bottomed in early June. 

The long Treasury was up ¼ %, closing above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend but below its 200 day moving average (though it is again getting close) and remained in a short term downtrend.  It seems trapped in the range defined by those indicators.

The dollar was down fractionally, but ended below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range.  However, it is still above both moving averages and within a short term uptrend.

Well, Virginia, gold can go up, but with no consistency.  Yesterday, it was down, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.
               
Bottom line: more cognitive dissonance yesterday with the Dow closing below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), which is headed lower, and right on its 200 day moving average.  The S&P remains above both its moving averages, though like the Dow, its 100 day moving average is rolling over.  But until the S&P is in sync with the Dow, it is too soon to get negative. 

On the other hand, bonds and the dollar continue to trade at odds with each other; and gold is declining no matter what the news or the pin action in other indicators. In short, we are getting no directional information from these indices.

            Update on margin debt (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were negative: both the June Chicago Fed national activity index and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index were really bad; on the other hand, May new home sales (a primary indicator) were very strong.  In other words, more incongruent data, suggesting a struggling economy.

            But the day was mostly about trade: Trump threatening China and China responding.       

            Stephen Roach on Trump’s trade policy (medium):

            China girds for trade war (medium):

            And starts talking tough (medium):

            Late in the afternoon, Navarro provides some soothing words (short):
           
            Making sense of Trump’s strategy (medium):

            ***overnight, Trump back on the EU auto tariffs (medium):

Bottom line: the threat of a trade war continues to raise uncertainty among investors.  To be sure, if things go to hell in a handbasket, it would have a negative impact on economic activity and corporate profitability.  Conversely, a successful completion of the trade negotiations would be a major plus.

From a Market perspective, stocks may fluctuate based on the tone of the rhetoric; but I don’t see a change in trend (or the lack thereof) until we know the outcome of the current confrontation.  I would juxtapose that with QE and an out of control fiscal policy both of which we already have and both of which are bad for the Markets long term.

If I am correct, equity valuations are too high and investors need to have cash in their portfolios.

            Declining Market liquidity (medium):
           
            And the role ETF’s may play in the illiquidity (medium):
           
            The myth of stocks for the long run (part 4):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            May new home sales were up 6.6% versus consensus of up 0.4%.

            The June Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.3 versus expectations of 35.2.

     International

    Other

            Global finance governance ten years after the crisis (medium);

            Trump’s fascinating economic experiment (medium):

            I think that this guy has been reading my posts (medium):

What I am reading today

            Getting rich slowly (medium):

            The secret to a meaningful life (medium):

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Monday, June 25, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

6/25/18

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P took a rest last week but retained its upward momentum---remaining above both moving averages and in uptrends across all timeframes.  The one factor to watch is the rollover of its 100 day moving average which appears to be headed for a crossover of its 200 day moving average---a negative technical signal.



            The long bond unsuccessfully challenged its 200 day moving average but remained near it.  It continues to trade above its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Importantly, it is meandering between the shrinking range topped by its 200 day moving average and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and limited on the downside by its 100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.



            The dollar re-established its very short term uptrend last week.  It remained above both moving averages and in a short term uptrend.  So Friday’s minor decline notwithstanding, it maintains good momentum to the upside.



            Gold continues its abysmal performance.  Clearly, no one seems interested in it as a safety trade.



            The VIX continued its bounce off the lower boundary of its short term trading range---suggesting that it may have hit a bottom.  However, it unsuccessfully challenged its 200 day moving average (now resistance)---suggesting a new volatility regime is not in the making. 



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Latest on trade with China (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The May Chicago national activity index was -.15 versus estimates of +.37

     International

            June German business expectations came in at 98.6 versus forecasts of 98.1, current conditions were 105.1 versus 105.7 and business climate was 101.8, in line,

    Other

            Update on student loans (medium):

What I am reading today

           

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.