Monday, April 16, 2018

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

4/16/18

The Market
         
    Technical

            Short term the S&P is struggling.  It remains in a very short term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average.  Still it has a lot of long term support from all major uptrends and its 200 day moving average.  Until it starts challenging these levels, the assumption remains that the primary trend is up.



            The long Treasury was up, maintaining the now two month bounce off  the lower boundary of its long term uptrend (very short term uptrend).  On the other hand, it remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within a short term downtrend.  But as you can see, the range is narrowing between lower boundary of the very short term uptrend (support) and its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  I have opined that a move out of this range will likely lead to a further move in the direction of the break.

            The bond market has a problem (medium):



            The dollar was unchanged on Friday of decent volume; and that summarizes much about its trading pattern over the last week.  I have noted that this is a bit unusual when the long bond is making the kind of solid upward move it has made over the last two months (when TLT moves up, it generally includes foreign investors who have to buy dollars in order to buy TLT).  All that said, its chart is ugly as it remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and an intermediate term downtrend.



            Gold remains in a short term uptrend and above its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  However, as you can see, it has been unable to rise above its February high, suggesting that a wedge pattern may be developing---the breaking of which would be  predictive of a further move in the direction of the break.



            The VIX sold off on Friday on a down Market day.  Several times last week, it broke with its usual inverse correlation with equity prices.  I have no idea why; nor have I seen any satisfactory explanation for the performance.  That said, while it remains above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and its 100 and 200 day moving averages, it certainly looks like these support levels are about to be challenged.  Normally, that would mean better stock prices; now???



    Fundamental

       Headlines

      
           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            March retail sales rose 0.6% versus expectations of +0.4%; ex autos , they were up 0.2%, in line.

            The April New York Fed manufacturing index came in at 15.8 versus estimates of 18.2.

     International

    Other

What I am reading today

           

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